Houston Texans 2012 Season Win Total Outlook & Projection:
2012 Houston Texans Las Vegas Season Win Total Line;
As of this writing, oddsmakers have the 2012 NFL regular season
win total betting line
for the Houston Texans set at 10 wins.
This number represents an increase of 1 win from Houston’s
prior year season win total line of 9, which the Texans went over
by one victory finishing with a record of (10-6)…
However, it’s likely the Texans would have won more
games if QB Matt Schaub hadn’t missed 6 starts. The same
can be said for now departed DE Mario Williams who only started
5 games, and registered 5 sacks in those contests.
Part of this line has to do with the Texans clearly being the
strongest team in the AFC South.
Furthermore, it is well known the Texans have one of the easier schedules
on paper thanks in part to the AFC South checking in as one of the weakest
divisions aided by the recent demise of the Colts.
As a result, topping 10 wins might seem like an easy proposition, even with the
departure of Mario Williams.
However, worries about Matt Schaub’s ability to stay healthy for a full season
prevent this line from moving into the 11.5 to 12 win range a la New England
and Green Bay.
Schedule Analysis:
In 2012 the Texans will play just 5 games versus teams that made the playoffs a year ago.
This is a reduction of 1 such matchup compared to the previous season.
However, two other contests jump out against teams we expect to be playoff caliber.
Home to Buffalo in week 9 (improved defense added Mario Williams), @Chicago in week 10, a team that likely would
have made playoffs last season if not for QB Jay Cutler’s injury. Furthermore, Chicago has
added WR Brandon Marshall.
Furthermore, traveling to face the Jets in week 5 is a duel versus a potentially top notch defense.
And of course the road game against Tennessee in week 13 could prove difficult.
Overall, roughly half of Houston’s contests are likely to come versus top competition.
The other half of Houson’s schedule are mostly contests versus teams in major rebuilding mode
(save for the home game versus Tennessee in week 4)… These contests include;
Miami in week 1, @Jacksonville in week 2, Jacksonville in week 11, Indianapolis in week 15,
Minnesota in week 16, and @Indianapolis in week 17.
It should also be noted that facing the Colts twice at the end of the season makes for potentially more
difficult matchups– as the Colts are likely to stumble out of the gate with a rookie QB.
However by the end of the season there is no telling how Andrew Luck and the Colts
will be firing on offense. They will have had an entire season to gel.
A similar case
can be said for a recently rebuilt Minnesota offense.
Furthermore, if Schaub isn’t healthy at the end of the season, the potential
to lose any of these contests increases greatly.
Record Projection:
In 2012 we project the Texans to go (10-6), matching the
Vegas season win total line of 10 wins.
While there are plenty of so called cupcakes on this year’s schedule,
drawing several of these teams near the end of the season could be a risky
proposition given Matt Schaub’s propensity for injury.
Additionally, the Texans lost DE Mario Williams. And while he only
played 5 games last season, he certainly helped against top
flight compeition– for example registering two sacks in a victory over Pittsburgh in
week 4… So while the Texans didn’t appear to miss him on the whole,
he’ll still be missed.
Of course with a team as talented as Houston, there is major upside to this
prediction. But we’ll side with Vegas and project Houston’s 2012
regular season conservatively at 10 wins. There’s even a chance the week 17 contest
@Indy will be meaningless for Houston’s playoff positioning.
Disclaimer, injuries could always wreak havoc with these projections.
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