Green Bay Packers 2012 Season Win Total Outlook & Projection:
2012 Green Bay Packers Las Vegas Season Win Total Line;
As of this writing, some oddsmakers have the 2012 NFL regular season
win total betting line
for the Green Bay Packers set at 11.5 wins, and others at 12 wins…
Since the 11.5 win number represents a tighter line with less juice, that’s
the number we’ll be using… It represents a decrease of 3.5 wins
from the Packers prior year mark of (15-1)… 11.5 wins is also .5
win higher than last season win total line of 11.
Much of this line has to do with the Packers’ non-existent,
record setting (in a bad way)
passing yards defense from a season ago… The loss of S Nick Collins
to injury was detrimental, as was the departure of Cullen Jenkins in free agency.
However with proven defensive coordinator Dom Capers,
plus a slew of defensive draft picks and free agent
signings, one might think it shouldn’t be too hard for the Packers’ defense
to show a dramatic year over year improvement…
Especially with the combined winning % of Green Bay’s
2012 opponents checking in at just
.469 in the prior campaign. Hmmmm.
Schedule Analysis:
In 2012 the Packers will play 6 games versus teams that made the playoffs in the previous
season. This is an increase of 1 such contest compared to the prior season.
Additionally, one can also argue the Bears would have been a playoff team last season
if not for the injury to
QB Jay Cutler. Now Chicago has added WR Brandon Marshall… If we add these 2 games to the above 6 games,
on paper we can say half of Green Bay’s games in 2012 are against playoff caliber squads.
Meanwhile, a trip to up and coming Seattle in week 3 also looks to be in the tough
category on paper.
On the flip side, Green Bay has several easy contests on paper including;
@Indianapolis in week 5, @St. Louis in week 7, home to Jacksonville in week 8,
home to Arizona in week 9, home to Minnesota in week 13, and home to Tennessee in week 16
(which should be made easier due to the weather advantage).
A trip to Minnesota in week 17 could be tough, could be cake-walk, might be needed,
or may not be needed at all.
Overall the prior year winning % of the squads in these 7 contests
is poor enough, that we see it as artificially dragging down the overall win % of Green Bay’s
total scheduled opponents, especially when factoring in a Bears’ squad which should
have finished well over .500 last season, but did not due to key injury.
Record Projection:
In 2012 we project the Packers to go (12-4), barely topping the
Vegas season win total of 11.5 games, or pushing the number depending on your line.
While the Packers’ defense should improve in 2012, and the schedule
appears easy on paper upon first glance, the schedule
contains 9 tough outs, including improved division rival Chicago,
not to mention to recent competitiveness
of the Lions air attack which is likely to put Green Bay’s defense to the test.
Of course with such a talented offense, the Packers could once again
blow past the number. But we think it will be hard to repeat last season’s
sweeps of Chicago and Detroit.
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Remember these now archived 2012 NFL record forecasts were made
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