Arizona Cardinals 2013 Season Win Total Outlook & Projection:
2013 Arizona Cardinals Las Vegas Season Win Total Line;
As of this writing, oddsmakers have the 2013 NFL regular season
win total betting line
for the Arizona Cardinals set at 5.5 wins.
This number represents an increase of 1/2 win compared
to Arizona’s prior year record of (5-11), which we correctly projected.
This year’s Vegas number also represents a decrease of 1 full win
compared to last year’s already low
6.5 season win over/under line.
In fact the Cardinals have the lowest Vegas season win total odds in the NFC in 2013.
Part of this line of course has to do with the fact
the ‘Cards play in the stacked NFC West with Super Bowl
favorites San Francisco and Seattle, not to mention
the up and coming St. Louis Rams, a team that went (4-1-1) in the division last season.
Other negative factors influencing this season’s win total odds include
weakness on the offensive line… Thankfully, Levi Brown is set to return.
Unfortunately, 1st round pick Jonathan Cooper was placed on IR.
The Cardinals are also weak at safety, and linebacker, no thanks to a 4 game suspention
handed to Daryl Washington.
On the plus side, once again Arizona should field a great defensive line with pass rush
to boot. And the addition of John Abraham is certainly interesting as far as the pass rush goes.
Fitz is Fitz. And Peterson a solid corner.
Further positives include the signing of Carlson Palmer an upgrade at QB…
The Mendenhall signing would
be a plus if the Cardinals offensive line was better at run blocking.
Nonetheless, Vegas has assigned the lowest win total to Arizona.
A peek at the schedule might shed additional light on reasons why.
Schedule Analysis:
A look at Arizona’s 2013 schedule
shows the ‘Cards will play the 7th toughest schedule on paper with their opponents’
winning percentage in the prior campaign checking in at .520.
Compounding the SOS number is the majority of the toughness is in home games.
The Cardinals have the 2nd hardest home schedule on paper behind San Francisco.
We rank 7 of 8 home games as being difficult;
- Carolina in week 5 (The Panthers were over 100 net points better than Arizona last season)
- Seattle in week 7
- Atlanta in week 8
- Houston in week 10
- Indianapolis in week 12
- St. Louis in week 14 (4-1-1 in the West Last Season)
- San Francisco in week 17
We expect this to be problematic for the Cardinals as the majority of visiting teams
are likely to be strong enough to overcome any home field advantage…
It would be better for the Cardinals’ chances of scoring wins if their home
schedule was easier, with the road games being tougher. But it is just the opposite.
The Cardinals road schedule is much easier than their home schedule.
But since winning on the road is harder to do, the Cardinals may not be strong enough
to get the job done in 2013 either.
Road contests include;
@St. Louis in week 1, @New Orleans in week 3, @Tampa Bay in week 4, @San Francisco in week 6,
@Jacksonville in week 11, @Philadelphia in week 13, @Tennessee in week 15,
@Seattle in week 16.
While the road schedule is lighter overall, there are several contests where it is quite
difficult to pencil in victories on paper.
Overall the Cardinals will square off 7 times versus teams that made the postseason last year.
Nearly 50% of their games, most of which come in the division thanks to
San Francisco
and
Seattle
both making the playoffs.
Atlanta, Houston, and Indianapolis round out the list.
Record Projection:
In 2013 we now project the Cardinals to go (4-12) falling short of the Vegas
season win total line of 5.5. This is a slight upgrade from our opening projection
as the season gets ready to kick off.
The Cardinals made real efforts to improve their roster in 2013. However, with a tough slate of games
bringing many top teams to Arizona, we
think the Cardinals may struggle to win on a consistent basis.
If the offensive line does a 360, there could be upside to this projection.
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