Indianapolis Colts 2013 Season Win Total Outlook & Projection:
2013 Indianapolis Colts Las Vegas Season Win Total Line;
As of this writing, oddsmakers have the 2013 NFL regular season
win total line
for the Indianapolis Colts set at 8.5 wins.
This number represents an increase of 3 wins compared to the Colts'
prior year regular season win total line of 5.5 which Indianapolis topped
with a record of (11-5) and a surprise playoff berth.
It's also worth noting this season's win total line is 2.5 wins below
the Colts 11 win finish of a season ago.
Is Vegas projecting a step back for the Colts in 2013?
We think a closer look at last season's results are in order.
Of the Colts' 11 wins, we find 7 victories came versus teams
in near or total disarray.
- Cleveland (5-11)
- @Tennessee (6-10)
- @Jacksonville (2-14)
- Buffalo (6-10)
- @Detroit (4-12)
- Tennessee (6-10)
- @Kansas City (2-14)
Granted you can only beat the teams you're scheduled to play.
However, the Colts also dropped a home game to Jacksonville (2-14), and a road game
@NY Jets (6-10).
However, offsetting these questionable losses were three home wins over teams
that went on to the playoffs;
Green Bay (11-5), and Houston (12-4).
Changes for 2013:
The Colts brought in a slew of free agents
in an effort to address weaknesses on the offensive line, running back,
defensive line, linebacker, and in the secondary.
In 2013 the Colts face the 3rd easiest schedule on paper
with the combined winning percentage of their opponents
checking in at .461.
However, this number is misleading because the Colts will play an inordinate number
of games versus teams
whose record was so poor last season, it skews the overall
strength of schedule number down.
- Oakland (4-12) in week 1
- @Jacksonville (2-14) in week 4
- @Arizona (5-11) in week 12
- @Kansas City (2-14) in week 16
- Jacksonville (2-14) in week 17
Looked at in reverse, this would be the equivalent of playing
3 teams that went (14-2), one team (12-4), and another (11-5).
That said, the Colts
do play 6 games versus teams that made the playoffs a year ago.
This is an increase of 1 such matchup compared to the previous season;
Other potentially competitive matchups include;
- Miami in week 2 (Added WR Mike Wallace)
- St. Louis in week 10 (Went 4-1-1 in the NFC West last season)
- @Tennessee in week 11 (Improved roster)
- Tennessee in week 13 (Also played Colts tightly last season)
One additional game is @San Diego in week 6-- a Charger team that appears to be sinking.
Overall we project as many as 11 competitive matchups for the Colts in 2013-- if you are willing
to include 2 tilts with Tennessee as competitive, and a trip to Kansas City, a team with a solid QB upgrade with Alex Smith.
In 2013 we project the Colts to go (8-8), falling shy of the
Vegas season win total line of 8.5 wins.
The Colts may have improved their roster with several free agent signings,
but they are not the only team trying to win now.
Considering the large number of wins
the Colts scored last season against teams in disarray, we think the Colts
will have a tough job matching the success, as their schedule contains as many as 11 matchups
versus competitive teams compared to just 7 a season ago.
the Colts showed they can compete with playoff teams. However, they can
also struggle against struggling teams.
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