Dallas Cowboys 2007 NFL Projection:
The Cowboys enter 2007 with a new head coach in Wade Phillips,
who takes over a Cowboys team that made the playoffs, only to lose
on a hold gone wrong in Seattle.
Fans in Dallas are understandably excited to see what Tony Romo can do in a full season with the Cowboys.
He certainly threw for a ton of yards in only a partial season.
However, we're not quite ready to proclaim Tony Romo as the next Tom Brady.
Follow the logic...
When Romo threw 5 TD's Thanksgiving versus
Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers (3-7) at the time
were playing their 3rd game in eleven days, and were clearly exhausted, had nothing to play for, and arguably
mailed it in.
If you factor that game out, Romo
threw 14 TD's and 13 INT's in his other appearances playing against teams with a combined record of
(82-94). That's a winning percentage of .466, equating to an average opponent record of (7-8-1)... Not exactly the
strongest slate of games.
Granted, you can only play against the teams on your schedule.
So then, how good is Romo?
Here's one proposed way of measuring...
Of the six defenses in the league that
held teams to under 300 points in 2006, the Cowboys will play four of them in 2007,
in their first six games as follows;
Clearly if Romo puts up big numbers in these games, the Cowboys should be a force to be reckoned
with all season long. And accordingly blow our prediction out of the water.
However, since we feel Romo is still a little "untested" based on the above
strength of schedule analysis,
it's hard to pencil them in for double digit wins.
To compare, the 2005 Cowboys with
Drew Bledsoe faced 5 teams that ended up holding teams to under 300 points that season, going (2-3) in those games,
and very nearly winning them all, if not for 3 short missed field goals.
Objectively, consider what the Cowboys were paying Bledsoe compared to what they're going to have to pay Romo.
To determine if the Cowboys are really better off with the younger Romo,
keep your eyes on the 3 games mentioned above to see how Romo plays against
As for the rest of the Dallas squad, the Cowboys' offense is of course loaded with talent and experience,
and should score plenty of points in most games.
It's the defensive unit that really needs to step up in 2007.
One way to do so would be to surrender
fewer long TD passes, especially in key situations; something that has crippled the Cowboys during the last two
Overall we're penciling in the Cowboys for a (9-7) record in 2007, mostly due to uncertainty about
how Romo will perform against several stronger defenses compared to last season.
If Romo plays as well as he did last season, but against
this schedule, then there's tons of upside to these predictions. Likewise if the Cowboys' pass
defense improves, these projections could also be blown out of the water.
View week by week NFL predictions for the 2007 Dallas Cowboys below.
In the grid below are FootballLOCKS.com's preseason made straight up, non point spread NFL
projections for the 2007 Dallas Cowboys, displayed as predictions of which
games were likely to be won and lost. Note these were preseason NFL predictions
made before the regular season.
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Free 2007 NFL Predictions Note:
When reading each individual 2007 NFL prediction in the NFL schedule grid below, remember
these now archived NFL prognostications were made
during the 2007 preseason.
Of course many team elements often change throughout the course of a yearly
football campaign which very well may have affected
FootballLOCKS.com's opinion of the below preseason made football picks by the time the games came around on the annual NFL schedule.
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you might have found that various plays could have been different than the early,
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