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Free Fantasy Football Strategies:
If you’re looking for a few free fantasy football tips for the 2009
NFL season to improve your fantasy football odds, FootballLOCKS.com has a few FF tactics
for you. Fantasy football strategy topics below include;
We’re not going to
give you the obvious fantasy football cheat sheet info readily available
from many sites that deal exclusively in fantasy football. We’ll skip
the "what to do with the first pick" fantasy football advice other than to say
as long as the following studs stay injury free, production should be plentiful from
Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner or Matt Forte no matter how you spin it.
On the other hand, Maurice Jones-Drew posses a bit of a quandary... He has tallied
nice fantasy numbers in past years while splitting the carries with Fred Taylor.
With Taylor's departure, Jones-Drew's carries will increase substantially.
And it would stand to reason that his numbers should follow. However,
can Maurice hold up to the increased work load?
While there is certainly potential for a huge pot of gold at the end of this rainbow,
one cannot discount the possibility this running back could wear down under the heavy load
or even succumb to injury. Could be boom... Could be bust. Also of note, the Jaguars offensive line
is healthy coming into 2009.
Quarterback Projects to be a Deep Position in 2009:
Our first fantasy football spin of the new season is to take a look at the juicy roster
of QB's in 2009.
Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers,
Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Matt Cassel, can we get another Matt?
How about Matt Hasselbeck for a bounce back year? And there's still
Carson Palmer, Jay Cutler, Eli Manning, David Garrard, Ben Roethlisberger, and trendy potential
break-out candidate Trent Edwards, which probably means it will be somebody else, how about
Shaun Hill?
At any rate, you can clearly see the depth at this position. Ideally in a 12 team league
you might be able to grab two RB's and two
WR's before dipping into the QB bin, at which point you might even be able to walk away with
two above average QB's overall for the purpose of platooning against the weakest defense.
So one of our top FF spins is simply to lay off the quarterbacks early,
unless of course your draft position puts
you in a situation where
you are going to have to settle for a sub par RB or WR early on-- such that it's worth grabbing
a quarterback early and waiting an extra round to fill the other spot.
Now let's take a look at some draft day values.
2009 Fantasy Football Sleepers
& Draft Day Steals:
Running Backs in Good Spots for the 2009 Season:
I'm expecting Pierre Thomas to have a strong season.
He could be one of the top sleepers at running back.
The Saints' passing game is potent. Defenses will have to back
off the running game to defend the pass. Thomas averaged 4.8 yards per carry last season and
bagged 9 touchdowns in only 129 carries. He also grabbed 3 more TD's
through the air. He's in line to get more touches in '09.
Continuing on with more
free fantasy football information,
Clinton Portis is another RB high on my list for good things in 2009.
Follow my logic... With the addition of Albert Haynsworth to the Skins'
defensive line, I see the Redskins creating a lot of turnovers in 2009,
setting up short fields for the offense, and a lot of easy scores
for Portis.
I like
Joseph Addai
to bounce back solid. The Colts are healthy on the O-line.
But if you draft Addai, I would strongly suggest picking rookie
Donald Brown as well. One of these guys should end up having a strong season,
if you don't mind using two picks to get in on the action.
The plus is nobody is taking Addai early.
In a 12 team draft, if you happen to take a top-notch quarterback early,
you may find yourself needing to go this route to fill your running backs.
Ray Rice is running with Baltimore's first team offense
in training camp. The Ravens have a tremendous offensive line.
At the same time
Willis McGahee was injured last season.
Nobody wants to touch Willis in fantasy drafts
with Ray Rice and Le'Ron McClain in the fold.
McClain is slated to play fullback. I think Rice and McGahee are worth a shot.
I would try to draft both as one of these guys should have a
great season behind the great run blocking unit of Baltimore. You can never have enough depth at running back with
so many injuries at the position. And it's great to have RB's on teams
with top notch offensive lines. Especially
when they're facing a slate of easy run defenses as are the Ravens in '09.
Ryan Grant
is another bounce back play. He finally got it going
by the end of last season. And Green Bay faces
a mediocre slate of rushing defenses in 2009.
A good value.
Julius Jones
-- Yeah, I can't believe I'm writing this,
but the Seahawks are changing their blocking scheme to better suit
Jones' running style. And the Seahawks face one of the easiest
strength of schedules with respects to rushing defenses.
A quick update - Seattle's offensive line is already suffering from the injury bug.
LG Mike Wahle was released, center Chris Spencer is out 1 month,
and most importantly LT Walter Jones had arthroscopic surgery on his left knee...
Not to mention Seattle just signed
Edgerrin James.
Jones is still the starter. There are two ways to play this. If you drafted Jones already,
you might want to add "Edge" based on Seattle's easy run defense
SOS. However, with all of their injuries upfront, Seattle may not
be able to take advantage of the light SOS, and you might want to get
out of the Seattle game altogether.
Tashard Choice
is a very late round sleeper for sure. He's got plenty of competition for touches
with Marion Barber and Felix Jones. But last season he tore it up
against top defenses when given the opportunity late in the season.
166 yards of offense at Pittsburgh, 143 total yards against the Giants,
115 yards against the Ravens. Are you kidding me? If there's any
injury situation with Barber / Jones you want this here Choice on your
fantasy squad!
Jamal Lewis
-- With Kellen Winslow Jr. gone,
the Browns should have much improved blocking from the tight end position
in their running game.
Ahmad Bradshaw
-- Derrick Ward is on Tampa Bay and Andre Brown is out for the year.
The Giants have a great run blocking unit. With Brandon Jacob's propensity
for injuries, Bradshaw could be an early mid-round round steal.
Wide Receivers in Good Spots for the 2009 Season:
Torry Holt has been playing on a Rams' team
with no offensive line for the past several seasons.
Now he finds himself in Jacksonville with a healthy and deep offensive line,
plus a mobile quarterback. With David Garrard's scrambling ability,
I see big plays down the field in store for Holt.
Not to mention, Jacksonville's defense projects to be a little weak,
setting up the potential for 4th quarter catch up fireworks.
Greg Jennings knows how to get open deep. He's not the most athletic receiver, but so what?
Was Larry Bird the most athletic forward in hoops?
Heck no, but he knew how to create open looks to the hoop by tricking his defenders into
the wrong position. Jennings does the same. And guys like that will always be open!
Not to mention Green Bay faces a fairly easy strength of schedule (SOS) with regards to pass defense.
Miles Austin -- Everyone knows Tony Romo has great scrambling ability.
That bodes well for deep completions on broken plays.
Miles Austin has the speed to get down the field,
and the height to go up and get the ball.
Some fantasy owners are shying away from Austin because of the presence
of Patrick Crayton. But Crayton isn't going to run the deep routes
like Austin will. There's a real opportunity here for a late round steal with
Austin.
Bernard Berrian -- The Vikings face one of the easiest pass defense
strength of schedules in the league this season. And defenses have to
worry about Minnesota's running game first and foremost.
Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Steve Breaston -- As if
the Cardinals weren't prolific enough in the passing game,
they also face an easy strength of schedule in the pass defense department.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh -- He's a beast. Now with
Seattle, the Swiss cheese defenses he'll face in
the NFC West are nothing compared to the brick walls
he's accustomed to facing in the AFC North!
Update - Buyer beware, Seattle's offensive line is currently in bad shape
entering the third week of preseason.
David Clowney -- Last preseason
he was tearing it up before going
down with a season ending injury before the start of the season...
Fast-forward a year to preseason weeks one & two,
and Clowney has been a deep threat once again.
The Jets have a solid offensive line
that may allow Clowney to get deep often.
It might be worth taking a chance on Clowney late in your draft.
Robert Meachem -- A
deep threat on the Saints with much better hands
than Devery Henderson.
Chris Henry -- This could be the season Henry
comes to play for Cincinnati. He looked good preseason week 1 & 2.
Quarterbacks in Good Spots for the 2009 Season:
Matt Schaub -- If you want to draft a lot
of running backs and wide receivers before your QB in a 12 team league,
then you might end up with Schaub in round 5.
If he stays injury-free, he should rate as a steal.
"The question" about Schaub being able to play a full season
is exactly why you can get him that late in your draft-- when he leads
such a potent passing attack in Houston. Be sure to grab another
legit starter just in case!
David Garrard -- Last season the Jaguars'
offensive line was ruined by injuries. They are healthy and
deeper this season. Plus Garrard weighs less which makes
him even nimbler. Plus he will finally have a real receiver
to throw to (Torry Holt).
Kerry Collins -- The additions of wide receivers
Nate Washington and Kenny Britt could help open the passing game.
Opposing defenses have to focus on the rush.
The departure of DT Albert Haynesworth means the Titans defense
might give up more points, forcing the offense to throw more.
Collins could be a decent backup QB you can grab with your last pick.
Shaun Hill -- I can't believe I'm writing this,
but the schedule is friendly to the quarterback of the
San Francisco 49ers this season. This is a late round
value pick.
Peyton Manning -- Last season's MVP
faces an easy slate of pass defenses in 2009.
Matt Hasselbeck -- Gains T.J. Houshmandzadeh
at receiver and faces an easy schedule. Will his back stay healthy?
Draft him late for platooning purposes. Update - Seattle's offensive
line is in rough shape.
Sage Rosenfels -- Um, make that Brett Favre -- The
beneficiary of a great running game
and soft pass SOS. But Favre has struggled in domes!
Tight Ends in Good Spots for the 2009 Season:
Dallas Clark -- The
Colts offensive line is healthy and Clark faces a soft
pass SOS.
Jermichael Finley -- Opponents have to worry
about Green Bay's deep group of receivers.
The tight end position could flourish.
And this guy has it all.
John Carlson -- Easy SOS,
and defenses have to worry about Seattle's receivers
a little more with the addition of Housh.
Update - the Seahawk's offensive line is in bad shape
entering the 3rd week of preseason.
Greg Olsen -- Will benefit
from the arm of Jay Cutler.
Visanthe Shiancoe -- The Vikings have such a strong running game,
there's not enough resources to cover the tight end.
And the Vikings face a light pass defending SOS.
Jeremy Shockey -- If he shows up to play and stays injury-free,
there's no reason why he shouldn't have a phenomenal season playing on the
New Orleans Saints' offense.
Defenses in Good Spots for the 2009 Season:
Minnesota Vikings -- Face as light of a schedule
and as any team can in the stacked NFC.
San Diego Chargers -- Get Merriman back. Should do wonders.
Pittsburgh Steelers -- No comment necessary. And an easy schedule.
Baltimore Ravens -- Studs everywhere, easy schedule.
New York Jets -- Defensive mastermind Rex Ryan takes over as head coach.
New England Patriots -- Healthy and deep up front.
Kickers in Good Spots for the 2009 Season:
Neil Rackers, Ryan Longwell, and Adam Vinatieri
play on teams with stacked offenses
facing easy schedules in 2009. They should do well.
Rob Bironas of Tennessee, Kris Brown of Houston, and Nick Folk of Dallas are beasts.
Now continuing on with the all important
fantasy football tip... Strength of schedule.
Strength of Schedule / Weakness of schedule:
Whatever you want to
name it,
if there’s one free fantasy football draft tip you should take away, it’s
to use those strength of schedule charts that are popping up all over the
internet. Just remember to make adjustments for injury situations
and off-season roster moves because those charts don't always
reflect reality!
For example, the Minnesota Vikings picked up pass rushing dynamo Jared Allen from the Chiefs in 2008.
Strength of schedule charts didn't reflect this added power to the Vikings' defensive line.
But it negatively impacted offensive players who faced the Vikings.
Meanwhile, teams playing the Chiefs had it easy.
In 2009 look for Albert Haynesworth's move from Tennessee to Washington to cause
similar ripples.
Use strength of schedule to either increase the value of players
on your fantasy football draft board or decrease the value accordingly.
Teams Facing Easier Schedules in 2009:
See the following list of teams with light schedules in
2009. Try to draft players on these teams when faced with
a choice of comparable players on other teams.
Teams Facing Easy Defensive Schedules That Are Also Expected to Have Top
Offenses of Their Own to Take Full Advantage of the Weak Schedule:
- Green Bay Packers
- Arizona Cardinals
- Indianapolis Colts
- Minnesota Vikings
- Houston Texans
Teams Facing Easy Defensive Schedules, but Not Expected to Have Top of the Line Offenses to Take Full Advantage of the Situation:
Even so, a few gems can usually still be found here.
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Baltimore Ravens
- Chicago Bears
- Tennessee Titans
- San Francisco 49ers
- Seattle Seahawks
We would be remiss if we didn't point out the following...
Teams Facing Tougher Defensive Schedules, but still Expected to Have Offenses
Good Enough To Score Points against Most Teams:
- San Diego Chargers
- Carolina Panthers
- New England Patriots
- New Orleans Saints
- Atlanta Falcons
- Philadelphia Eagles
- New York Giants
- Dallas Cowboys
You should be able to find success with players in the above category in spite of their
difficult schedules.
When thinking of strength of schedule, make a note if a team
has a weak rushing defense
unable to keep opposing offenses from chewing up the game clock
against them. If so, it can lead to a fantasy football double whammy
where offensive players on such teams get fewer opportunities overall...
Especially if playing against a tougher defensive schedule!
Difficult Schedules
2009 Double Whammy Teams - 3 Categories:
1) Have a Defense That's Expected to Be Poor Stopping the Run
And Face a Tough Defensive Schedule in 2009:
The following is a list of fantasy football double whammy teams that
face defensively tough schedules in 2009 and don’t appear to have
defenses strong enough to keep opposing offenses from chewing
up the game clock on them, thus limiting the attempts of their own offensive
players including during prevent defense time when trailing and
looking for garbage fantasy football points.
Beware of drafting offensive players from double whammy teams near
the average draft position seen in fantasy football mock draft
and live draft results, as you might be over paying.
The following teams qualify as double whammy teams in this category in 2009.
- Detroit Lions
- St. Louis Rams
- Kansas City Chiefs
2) Have a Defense That's Expected to Be Poor Stopping the Run, Facing an Easier Defensive Schedule Than the Above Teams,
But Their Own Offense is Expected to be Weak or One Dimensional:
The following category of double whammy teams face schedules that aren’t the toughest
from a defensive opponent standpoint, but their own offenses may simply
not be good enough to capitalize on the favorable scheduling situation,
while at the same time their own defense may not be able to keep the ball
away from opposing offenses. Therefore, with few exceptions,
use a bit of caution when drafting offensive players from these double whammy
teams, valuing them lower than you normally would.
- Cleveland Browns
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Oakland Raiders
3) Have a Defense That's Expected to Be Good Stopping the Run, But Are Facing a Tough Defensive Schedule,
And Are Expected to Have a Weak or One Dimensional Offense Due to Difficult Scheduling:
These double whammy teams face defensively tough schedules, but have above average
defenses of their own more than capable of getting the ball back to their own offense for more chances.
However, these teams are not known to be
offensively minded, so the sheer number of games they're scheduled to play
versus teams with good defenses cannot be ignored, as the potential for many
defensive struggles exists... Therefore with few exceptions use
caution and beware of drafting too many
offensive players from these double whammy teams.
- New York Jets
- Washington Redskins
- Miami Dolphins
- Buffalo Bills
2009 Bubble Double Whammy Teams
Teams Expected to Have Decent Offenses, But Also Expected to Have Trouble Stopping the Run, Facing Tough Defensive Schedules:
These teams are on the double whammy bubble. They face tough defensive
schedules in 2009 and have trouble stopping the run, but their offenses
can still score... Even though teams in this category have above some offense, it’s important that you
do not discount the number of tough defensive games on their schedules.
So value players on these teams slightly lower than you
normally would. However, keep in mind teams in this category could provide
garbage time points against prevent defenses late in games. So don't be afraid to
draft at some point.
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Denver Broncos
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Trimming Your Draft Board:
Everyone knows that compiling a draft board can be a lot of work,
and the draft moves fast. You need a good plan to stay focused in the
heat of the moment. So when it comes to your draft sheet, look for ways
to trim the fat and make your draft board leaner and meaner.
Be willing
to think about what NFL players you don’t want to draft, because of
their difficult schedules, in addition to those players that you
do want to draft because of their easier schedules. The quicker
you can say, “no” to drafting a player when scanning up and
down the available players left in your draft at any moment
in time, the quicker you can get to a player you know is a
good pick for your team.
Divide Your Draft Board into 2 Key Columns:
On the left put players with easy schedules.
On the right put players with harder schedules, especially if they are
on Double Whammy Teams. This can help you focus and improve
you odds of putting together a team of players well positioned for success,
which is especially important if you're betting large sums of money
to win your league.
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Moving on now with more tips on how to trim your fantasy football draft board.
Team / Player Draft Day Avoidance:
Before the NFL season begins, FootballLOCKS.com performs a study of the
strength of each team’s schedule for the upcoming season to make
NFL predictions.
If you read the
free
pro football predictions you can see the emphasis placed on scheduling as
an element of making annual NFL football predictions against Las Vegas regular season NFL win totals.
By the way, if you're betting NFL football this season, check out the preseason
prognostications, you may find a few free NFL football betting tips.
Use the scheduling angle to make fantasy football predictions too.
Case in point the 2007 Buffalo Bills
were scheduled to play twelve games versus teams that finished
at .500 or better in 2006, including a whopping 8 games versus teams that made the playoffs
the previous year. They had lost Willis McGahee, and several key players on defense. In general we liked Lee Evans
as much as anybody, but we cautioned you to avoid him in the draft. And it was good advice as his yardage dropped
34% year over year and a, and his touchdowns fell off by 37.5%... Call it a 35% drop off on average overall.
Translation?
In a 16 player draft you would have had to get Lee Evans 5 to 6 rounds later (16 * 35% = 5.6) than the average projection based on his previous season's
numbers to break even on the pick!
So consider letting players with harder schedules fall to you in later rounds.
The conclusion is to beware of placing too much value on players
in potentially tough scheduling situations. Otherwise the odds could turn
against you costing you the money you bet in your fantasy football league.
So make notes of which teams have tough schedules in the upcoming season.
Avoiding drafting players on teams with the most brutal
schedules, especially from the Double Whammy Teams, unless they fall to you in much later rounds making them value
picks. It's one of the best fantasy football spins going.
So pay close attention to the quality of defenses your draft prospects are
slated to play against and trim your draft board accordingly.
Your Leaner, Meaner Fantasy Football Draft:
Now that we’ve ironed out a strategy for moving players into two columns
on your draft board;
- The easy schedule column and/or potent offense column
- The avoid column where you'll only be happy to
pounce if they fall a few rounds lower in the draft than you
normally would expect them to be drafted
Hopefully your odds of winning your fantasy league should
be improved-- as you will have a much
clearer path to fantasy football draft day dominance.
Keep reading for a piece on teams with
Jekyll & Hyde schedules.
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Jekyll and Hyde schedules
What's a Jekyll and Hyde schedule you ask?
A Jekyll and Hyde schedule is when a team
plays a very easy schedule in one part of the season, and then a very difficult
schedule in another part of the season.
Teams can have difficult first half
schedules and easy second half schedules, or easy first half schedules, and hard second half schedules.
Then there's inverted Jekyll and Hyde schedule's
with easy in the first quarter, difficult in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, and then easy again in
the 4th quarter of the season.
The opposite can also hold true. For example,
difficult in the first quarter, easy in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, and then difficult again in
the 4th quarter of the season.
The bottom line is to structure some of your ff draft and trading activity around the
presence of Jekyll and Hyde schedules. It's been one of my most
potent fantasy football tactics. Doing so can help you win your fantasy football league.
I've given you the concept. It's up to you to comb through your players' schedules to see
who has a tough run games that may warrant making a trade to get out of a soon to be falling stock!
Fantasy Football Draft Room Mentality:
It's your turn to draft. You have a certain player in mind who you think will have a big year.
But there are five or six other players on the typical fantasy
football player rankings charts listed ahead of your guy... Furthermore,
you know if you wait for your next pick,
he'll be gone.
Should you gamble and pick the player ahead on the chart, hoping your guy will still be there?
Or should you grab the player you like? Someone you think will have a huge year...
Here's what I do... If the player is a stud at his position, and the other players whom are
ranked ahead aren't
the top players at their positions, then I
draft the player I want, regardless of what somebody else's
player ranking chart shows...
If the player suits your team, then
grabbing that player just might make your season. You have to ask yourself,
"If I don't take this player now, what will be left at this position
when my next pick rolls around?"
Don't be afraid to reach a little for great players. Because in the end, a team with great players usually performs
well. That's our draft mentality for you.
Click the following for a list of NFL bye weeks
for your fantasy football team balancing act. As always, make sure you have substitute players for those
pesky byes. There's nothing like the sinking feeling of facing a key opponent in your league
while short-handed because you didn't plan ahead for half decent subs.
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