|
Free Fantasy Football Strategies:
If you’re looking for a few free fantasy football tips for the 2011
NFL season to improve your fantasy football odds, FootballLOCKS.com has a few FF tactics
for you. Fantasy football strategy topics below include;
Here in 2011
we’re not going to
give you the obvious fantasy football cheat sheet info readily available
from many sites that deal exclusively in fantasy football. We’ll skip
the "what to do with the first pick" fantasy football advice other than to say
the Tennessee Titans face an easy slate of run defenses, so if you have faith
Chris Johnson will eventually sign, then don't be afraid to
pull the trigger.
2011 Projects as a Deep Draft:
Our first fantasy football spin of the new season is to warn you to not be
fooled by the sheer number of
fantasy football stars on the draft board.
Whether it's a position like tight end where
more teams have been able to find seemingly uncoverable bodies in the mold
of Antonio Gates. Or the QB position where overly strict pass interference rules combined
with the increase of
gigantic wide receivers and tight ends have turned anyone with half an arm into a
4,000 yard passer-- there is depth up and down your draft board like never before.
That's why in order to get a leg
up on your competition
it's paramount to consider the strength of schedule (SOS) which you're prospective draftees
will face in 2011,
2011 Fantasy Football Sleepers
& Draft Day Steals:
Running Backs in Good Spots for the 2011 Season:
Michael Turner -- The Atlanta Falcons
face a kind schedule in the run stuffing department.
Plus it will be tough for opponent's to focus
on the run with new WR threat Julio Jones added to the passing attack,
not to mention the return of
speedy Harry Douglas. Did I mention the 'Falcs have a solid offensive line?
BenJarvus Green-Ellis -- Is he a burner? No.
But the Patriots' defense looks vastly improved this
season. And we see it setting up many short field
opportunities. BenJarvus Green-Ellis could be the king
of the 1 yard TD run in 2011. We project double
digit TD's easily. The number could get quite high
assuming he doesn't get hurt the way he pounds into
the line.
Jamaal Charles -- Charles is a threat every time
he touches the ball. And outside of San Diego, there isn't
a lot of run stuffing going on in the AFC West.
Legarrette Blount -- If he had played all 16 games,
last year's numbers would have been even juicier.
Shonn Greene -- A low price to pay for the starter on a team
that can run block, and facing a light slate of run defenses overall (not that there
aren't a few challenges mixed in).
Darren McFadden -- For those who don't mind gambling on health.
Mike Tolbert -- Low price tag, easy SOS, and part of a timeshare
with the seemingly injury prone Ryan Mathews.
Chris Johnson -- Easiest SOS for RB's on paper.
Wide Receivers in Good Spots for the 2011 Season:
Mike Wallace -- A chance to play the full slate of games with Roethlisberger
(unlike last season). And a kind SOS for the WR position. Buy, buy, buy.
DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin -- Easiest SOS for WR's on paper.
Robert Meachem -- Meachem has put up crazy good numbers when on the field.
With a healthy foot there's a chance for a buy low boom.
Lance Moore -- A scoring machine when on the field.
The departure of Reggie Bush signals more playing time for
Moore, who you can grab late for a small price.
Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd -- The departure of Nnamdi Asomugha
from the division is good news for Chargers' receivers.
Unfortunately, one of the matchups with Oakland this season is in week 17.
Larry Fitzgerald -- Easy SOS, and an improved QB situation with Kolb...
Although, not that improved, if you know what I mean.
Jacoby Ford -- If you project last season's numbers
when Ford saw limited action, over the course of an entire season,
you get fantasy football super glory.
Lee Evans -- Heads to Baltimore where unlike in Buffalo,
they have a running game, a short passing game, and a medium
distance passing game to keep defenders from constantly doubling him
deep.
Anquan Boldin -- Addition of Lee Evans
should further open the middle of the field.
Brandon Marshall -- A nice buy low candidate.
Could have had 100 receptions last season if he played all
16 games. What are the odds he only gets in the end zone
3 times again? Buy low.
Quarterbacks in Good Spots for the 2011 Season:
***Peyton Manning -- If you can acquire him cheap,
Manning has nice matchups during playoff time...
Assuming he comes back.
Phillip Rivers -- Nice SOS and a full season of Vincent Jackson.
Michael Vick -- Kind SOS and surrounded by talent.
Sam Bradford -- WR's decimated by injuries last season
and still had a great rookie campaign. Team adds tight end, receiving threat
Lance Kendricks. Look for improved numbers in 2011, and can
buy low.
Matt Ryan -- Not a kind SOS, but addition of WR Julio Jones,
and return of WR Harry Douglas increase the potential for greatness
in Atlanta, and you can buy cheap.
Ben Roethlisberger -- A buy low value with a fairly easy SOS.
Tight Ends in Good Spots for the 2011 Season:
Antonio Gates -- Easy enough schedule strength.
Should light it up again.
Dallas Clark -- Coming off injury, but nice SOS.
Tony Gonzalez -- Will be tough to cover the TE position
in Atlanta with so much going on at WR.
Rob Gronkowski -- Scoring machine with easy SOS.
Jimmy Graham -- Started getting the offense in New
Orleans late last season.
Dustin Keller -- Jets have face a light schedule
when it comes to covering the tight end.
Lance Kendricks -- The secret is getting out
this preseason. If you haven't drafted yet, you can get
him late (or cheap) which helps stockpile the rest of
your team.
Defenses in Good Spots for the 2011 Season:
Philadelphia Eagles -- Nice SOS. Added CB Nnamdi Asomugha.
Green Bay Packers -- Dom Capers working his magic.
San Francisco 49ers -- Easy schedule strength for this solid unit.
New York Jets -- Defensive mastermind Rex Ryan is the head coach.
New England Patriots -- Key additions on DL.
Pittsburgh Steelers -- Perennial power.
Kickers in Good Spots for the 2011 Season:
Neil Rackers -- No shortage of scoring in Houston.
Stephen Gostkowski -- Scoring machine.
Rob Bironas -- A beast.
Sabastian Janikowski -- 50 yard machine.
Now continuing on with the all-important
fantasy football tip... Strength of schedule.
Strength of Schedule / Weakness of schedule:
Whatever you want to
name it,
if there’s one free fantasy football draft tip you should take away, it’s
to use those strength of schedule charts that are popping up all over the
internet. Just remember to make adjustments for injury situations
and off-season roster moves because those charts don't always
reflect reality!
For example, in '08 the Minnesota Vikings picked up pass rushing dynamo Jared Allen from the Chiefs.
Strength of schedule charts based on the prior season's statistics didn't reflect this newly added power
to the Vikings' defensive line.
Allen's presence negatively impacted the performances of offensive players facing the Vikings.
Meanwhile, teams playing the Chiefs that season had it easy.
Keep such key offseason player changes at the forefront of your mind when using strength of schedule to either
increase the value of players
on your fantasy football draft board or decrease their value accordingly.
Trimming Your Draft Board:
Everyone knows that compiling a draft board can be a lot of work,
and the draft moves fast. You need a good plan to stay focused in the
heat of the moment. So when it comes to your draft sheet, look for ways
to trim the fat and make your draft board leaner and meaner.
Be willing
to think about what NFL players you don’t want to draft, because of
their difficult schedules, in addition to those players that you
do want to draft because of their easier schedules. The quicker
you can say, “no” to drafting a player when scanning up and
down the available players left in your draft at any moment
in time, the quicker you can get to a player you know is a
good pick for your team.
Divide Your Draft Board into 2 Key Columns:
On the left put players with easy schedules.
On the right put players with harder schedules. This can help you focus and improve
you odds of putting together a team of players well positioned for success,
which is especially important if you're betting large sums of money
to win your league.
We Pause This Article For A Quick Message About FootballLOCKS.com's NFL Picks:
If you would like to get FootballLOCKS.com's weekly NFL
football picks made using
backwards odds handicapping of Las Vegas NFL odds & point spreads,
Click here now
to sign up for a subscription or to get more information.
And be sure to check the latest Las Vegas
NFL betting odds.
Moving on now with more tips on how to trim your fantasy football draft board.
Team / Player Draft Day Avoidance:
Before the NFL season begins, FootballLOCKS.com performs a study of the
strength of each team’s schedule for the upcoming season to make
NFL predictions.
If you read the
free
pro football predictions you can see the emphasis placed on scheduling as
an element of making annual NFL football predictions against Las Vegas regular season NFL win totals.
By the way, if you're betting NFL football this season, check out the preseason
prognostications, you may find a few free NFL football betting tips.
Use the scheduling angle to make fantasy football predictions too.
Case in point the 2007 Buffalo Bills
were scheduled to play twelve games versus teams that finished
at .500 or better in 2006, including a whopping 8 games versus teams that made the playoffs
the previous year. They had lost Willis McGahee, and several key players on defense. In general we liked Lee Evans
as much as anybody, but we cautioned you to avoid him in the draft. And it was good advice as his yardage dropped
34% year over year and his touchdowns fell off by 37.5%... Call it a 35% drop off on average overall.
Translation?
In a 16 player draft you would have had to get Lee Evans 5 to 6 rounds later (16 * 35% = 5.6) than the average projection based on his previous season's
numbers to break even on the pick!
So consider letting players with harder schedules fall to you in later rounds.
The conclusion is to beware of placing too much value on players
in potentially tough scheduling situations. Otherwise the odds could turn
against you costing you the money you bet in your fantasy football league.
So make notes of which teams have tough schedules in the upcoming season.
Avoiding drafting players on teams with the most brutal
schedules, unless they fall to you in much later rounds making them value
picks. It's one of the best fantasy football spins going.
So pay close attention to the quality of defenses your draft prospects are
slated to play against and trim your draft board accordingly.
Your Leaner, Meaner Fantasy Football Draft:
Now that we’ve ironed out a strategy for moving players into two columns
on your draft board;
- The easy schedule column and/or potent offense column
- The avoid column where you'll only be happy to
pounce if they fall a few rounds lower in the draft than you
normally would expect them to be drafted
Hopefully your odds of winning your fantasy league should
be improved-- as you will have a much
clearer path to fantasy football draft day dominance.
Keep reading for a piece on teams with
Jekyll & Hyde schedules.
For those would like to get
FootballLOCKS.com’s expert NFL picks against the point spread:
If you’re interested in getting FootballLOCKS.com’s
NFL weekly picks versus the spread,
click for
detailed information on NFL predictions made using Backwards Odds Handicapping
of Las Vegas NFL point spreads. Or click the following to check the latest
NFL football point spreads.
Jekyll and Hyde schedules
What's a Jekyll and Hyde schedule you ask?
A Jekyll and Hyde schedule is when a team
plays a very easy schedule in one part of the season, and then a very difficult
schedule in another part of the season.
Teams can have difficult first half
schedules and easy second half schedules, or easy first half schedules, and hard second half schedules.
Then there's inverted Jekyll and Hyde schedule's
with easy in the first quarter, difficult in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, and then easy again in
the 4th quarter of the season.
The opposite can also hold true. For example,
difficult in the first quarter, easy in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, and then difficult again in
the 4th quarter of the season.
The bottom line is to structure some of your ff draft and trading activity around the
presence of Jekyll and Hyde schedules. It's been one of my most
potent fantasy football tactics. Doing so can help you win your fantasy football league.
I've given you the concept. It's up to you to comb through your players' schedules to see
who has a tough run games that may warrant making a trade to get out of a soon to be falling stock!
Fantasy Football Draft Room Mentality:
It's your turn to draft. You have a certain player in mind who you think will have a big year.
But there are five or six other players on the typical fantasy
football player rankings charts listed ahead of your guy... Furthermore,
you know if you wait for your next pick,
he'll be gone.
Should you gamble and pick the player ahead on the chart, hoping your guy will still be there?
Or should you grab the player you like? Someone you think will have a huge year...
Here's what I do... If the player is a stud at his position, and the other players whom are
ranked ahead aren't
the top players at their positions, then I
draft the player I want, regardless of what somebody else's
player ranking chart shows...
If the player suits your team, then
grabbing that player just might make your season. You have to ask yourself,
"If I don't take this player now, what will be left at this position
when my next pick rolls around?"
Don't be afraid to reach a little for great players. Because in the end, a team with great players usually performs
well. That's our draft mentality for you.
Click the following for a list of NFL bye weeks
for your fantasy football team balancing act. As always, make sure you have substitute players for those
pesky byes. There's nothing like the sinking feeling of facing a key opponent in your league
while short-handed because you didn't plan ahead for half decent subs.
Click the following for details on
FootballLOCKS.com’s
weekly NFL picks
against the spread... There's a special going on right now.
Get Pro Football Picks This Week
FootballLOCKS.com's Home Page
|
