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Free Fantasy Football Strategies:
If you’re looking for a few free fantasy football tips for the 2010
NFL season to improve your fantasy football odds, FootballLOCKS.com has a few FF tactics
for you. Fantasy football strategy topics below include;
Some of last season's highly successful fantasy football pearls wisdom passed along to you were to draft the combo of
Ray Rice and Willis McGahee as the Ravens possessed a
tremendous offensive line, and were slated to face an easy slate of run defenses. Whomever got the starting job
was sure to explode
Here in 2010 you should consider the Ravens once again don't face the toughest
slate of run defenses on paper when averaging out their schedule-- but beware the numbers are
skewed by the fact they face Cleveland twice, Tampa Bay, Buffalo, and Denver, all who finished
in the bottom 7 in run defense last season... Because in '10 the Ravens will also
play 7 games against teams that finished in the top 10 in rushing defense including;
Cincinnati twice, Pittsburgh twice, the Jets, Atlanta, and Houston.
So while you're sure to get some huge games against the weaker teams,
the Ravens do face several top rushing defensive opponents. (Note their home game versus Cincinnati is week 17,
so you may be able to cross that game off).
That's not to say Baltimore's ground game won't produce in these tough contests.
I'm just pointing out it's not quite the cake walk they had on paper coming into last year.
Naturally if you draft Rice, strongly consider
drafting McGahee as a handcuff. Willis is in good shape, and if Rice wasn't in front of him, he
would surely be a top flight pick with this offensive line.
Last season we also gave you Ryan Grant as a bounce back play.
I would tread cautiously in 2010 as the Packers face a tough slate of run D's.
A few other pearls from last year were to draft
Miles Austin as a late round steal (good luck repeating that feat this year).
And Matt Schaub in round 5 of a 12 team league.
We also suggested drafting
Robert Meachem, calling him a deep threat with much better
hands than Devery Henderson. And
Jermichael Finley,
Visanthe Shiancoe, Brett Favre, and the New York Jets defense.
If you played in a dynasty league you may be looking very good with several of the above younger stars.
Here in 2010
we’re not going to
give you the obvious fantasy football cheat sheet info readily available
from many sites that deal exclusively in fantasy football. We’ll skip
the "what to do with the first pick" fantasy football advice other than to say
the San Francisco 49ers face an easy slate of run defenses, and they beefed up their
offensive line, so Frank Gore could have a monster season if he stays healthy!
Same goes for the members of his offensive line.
2010 Projects as a Deep Draft:
Our first fantasy football spin of the new season is to warn you to not be fooled by the sheer number of
Fantasy football stars on the draft board. It's an extremely deep looking draft.
Whether it's a position like tight end where
more teams have been able to find seemingly uncoverable bodies in the mold
of an Antonio Gates. Or the QB position where strict pass interference rules coupled with more
gigantic wide receivers and tight ends have seemingly turned anyone with half an arm into a
4,000 yard passer... There is depth up and down your draft board like never before...
That's why it's so important consider the strength of schedule (SOS) you're prospective draftees
will face in 2010, in order to get a leg
up on your competition.
2010 Fantasy Football Sleepers
& Draft Day Steals:
Running Backs in Good Spots for the 2010 Season:
Frank Gore -- I said it above, and I'll echo it here.
The 49ers face a weak slate of rushing defenses in '10.
Meanwhile the 'Niners beefed up their O-line...
Take a late round flier on Gore's backup.
While not yet set in stone, Anthony Dixon looked good preseason week 1.
And it's uncanny that as I'm writing this,
news has crossed the wires that Brian Westbrook has just signed
a one year deal with San Francisco... So there's your new backup if Gore
goes down with an injury. Check average draft position tools in a few days
to see where Westbrook is going. You may want to snag him if you get Gore,
or even if you don't.
Jamaal Charles -- The Chiefs' schedule is "kind" to the running back position in 2010.
While KC's offensive line is nothing to write home about, Charles has already shown you he can
gain big yardage and score when running behind this group. And did I mention the kind SOS?
Ray Rice -- A tougher schedule than last year, but plenty of cupcakes
too. He'll get his points, and remember to draft Willis McGahee just in case...
Or perhaps you just like to snipe such backup RB's on teams with strong offensive lines.
Shonn Greene -- While the Jets face a very stiff slate of run defending teams in 2010, they
can flat out block up front and create lanes for their backs. Shonn Greene should have a decent enough
season to warrant drafting him. And I would most definitely draft LT to back him up. LaDainian Tomlinson
failed to impress recently in San Diego, but I believe a good portion of the blame goes to an offensive line that was
much better a pass blocking than run blocking... He'll be in a different situation in New York... Kind of like how Randy Moss
was terrible on Oakland and then dynamite in New England. We say, "buy"!
Michael Turner -- A fair enough SOS. Expect "Turner the Burner" to bounce back in 2010
from an injury riddled '09 campaign.
Chris "Beanie" Wells -- This year the Cardinals face many teams weak at stopping the run.
I like that Arizona added guard Alan Faneca from the Jets who should help beef up their running game on the left side paired
with LT Levi Brown.
If their ground game excels, teams may end up stacking the box, challenging the Cards
to beat them through the air (with Kurt Warner now retired). But as low as I've been
on Matt Leinart from day 1, I think he can still lob bombs to Larry Fitzgerald, who will surely
have the edge to catch such floaters against smaller DB's and safeties. And Derek Anderson throws a decent deep ball as well.
Point being, Beanie Wells
could be in position to have a nice season if he stays healthy.
Felix Jones -- They can open holes for the backs in Dallas. And if Felix Jones
could stay healthy for a full season, he could post mad stats... The operative word
being, "if".
Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams -- The thing about drafting one of these time share RB's is if
the other gets hurt, now you've got a beast on your hands-- because they can flat out
run block in Carolina, and their schedule isn't that tough either.
Ahmad Bradshaw -- A running back you can grab late, with healthy feet following surgery. Bradshaw would be a beast if not in a time share.
But with Brandon Jacob's propensity for injury, you never know...
Chester Taylor -- Seems like only a matter of time before he's the starter in Chicago.
Ronnie Brown -- The Dolphins' star RB has had more than one tremendous season 'in the making' cut short by injury.
If he can stay healthy for all 16 games you are getting a bargain in the middle rounds.
Javon Ringer -- If there's any injury to Chris Johnson, Tennessee's offensive line is so strong, you can plug in Ringer
and get sweet numbers.
Wide Receivers in Good Spots for the 2010 Season:
Miles Austin -- Like we said last year, "Everyone knows Tony Romo has great scrambling ability.
That bodes well for deep completions on broken plays.
Miles Austin has the speed to get down the field,
and the height to go up and get the ball..." Then we learned
he can also rip his way out of would be tackles
and score that way too.
Though we weren't surprised, Austin went on to shock many.
In 2010, the Cowboy's SOS for wide receivers
and quarterback is extremely favorable on paper. But that has a lot to do with the
Giants' defensive meltdown last season. And we expect the Giants'
defense to bounce back year over year. Not to mention we're expecting defensive improvements in Washington, and in Philadelphia too.
So take the SOS numbers with a grain of salt.
Furthermore, the Cowboys
decided to go young at left tackle, releasing Flozell Adams.
Doug Free has looked promising in camp, but it's still a risk. And left guard
Kyle Kosier may miss the first few weeks of the season.
None the less,
Miles Austin put up insane numbers in only 9 starts last year (we'll say he saw legit time in about 11.5 games).
So when you think what he might have done if starting 16 games, you can factor in some upside.
While we think Austin will have a tougher time (generally speaking) based on teams being more prepared for him,
and the switch at left tackle, plus projected tougher defenses within the NFC East, Austin should be able to deliver
solid numbers.
Hakeem Nicks -- Played with a broken toe and still racked up 6 TD's and 790 yards on 47 catches despite barely being involved
in the passing game during the first quarter of the season. Nicks has all the looks of a late round steal in 2010.
Robert Meachem -- Keep an eye on his injury situation.
Meachem has put up crazy good numbers when on the field. The return of
Lance Moore could cut into his numbers. At least one of these receivers will likely have a great year.
You can draft them pretty late. Why not grab both?
Mike Wallace -- Notching 756 yards and 6 TD's on only 39 receptions is flat out sick-- as Wallace did in '09.
The departure of Santonio Holmes from Pittsburgh opens to door for Wallace. Of course
there is the Roethlisberger suspension to deal with... At any rate, here is a receiver other fantasy football owners are
staying away from, so you can draft him late. And when Mike and Big Ben are lighting it up
during the second half of the season, you'll be glad you saw the value.
Terrell Owens -- Owen's poor season in Buffalo was the result of playing
on a team with no QB or offensive line to speak of. Expect a huge bounce back
in 2010 with the Cincinnati Bengals.
Larry Fitzgerald -- Only in a good spot by virtue of how far he's fallen down the draft board... In other words,
a value pick. Fitz caught some TD's from Matt Leinart before Kurt Warner took over.
And he can catch a lobbed bomb from anybody-- whether it's Leinart or Anderson. Perhaps the Cardinals will be willing to trot out at QB with more mobility and
a stronger arm such as Max Hall.
If he falls to you,
don't be afraid to draft him. Not to mention, the Cardinals running game could improve with the addition
of left guard Alan Faneca. This might help take some pressure off the QB. And the Cards' schedule isn't that tough.
Pierre Garcon -- A solid talent playing in a great offense with a mixed SOS.
DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin -- Easy SOS for WR's on paper, although that can be deceiving.
And while I stood up for McNabb throughout the years, let me also say,
don't worry, Kolb can get them the ball, no problem, as long as the O-line
holds up.
Jordan Shipley -- Looking more and more like Cincinnati has a beefier
"Wes Welker" on their hands... Could become a 'point per reception league'
dynamo.
Malcom Floyd -- The Chargers schedule is ridiculously easy. And Floyd is slated to get a lot more playing time in 2010
thanks to issues with Vincent Jackson. On the down side, LT Marcus McNeill hasn't been signed. But did we mention how easy
the Chargers' SOS is?
Legedu Naanee -- Once again the Chargers face an easy SOS. Legedu has to fend off Craig Davis for the
#2 receiver spot. Naanee could be a nice pickup in PPR leagues.
Jacoby Jones -- Could challenge Kevin Walter for the #2 spot in Houston. If Andre Johnson
ever got hurt, Jacoby could post mad numbers with Schaub.
James Jones -- You could draft some weak #2 WR on a team with no passing game-- or you could draft a strong #3 WR
on a team with a great passing game. If there's any injury to Driver or Jennings, Jones' stock would likely
soar... Of course there's always the presence of WR Jordy Nelson. But Jones has the talent
edge in Green Bay's battle for the third wide receiver spot.
Victor Cruz -- If scoring 3 TD's through the air in a half doesn't put you on the sleeper radar nothing will.
This is a guy to keep an eye on in preseason. If Steve Smith or even Hicks
goes down during the season, it could be very interesting to see how Cruz performs if given a shot.
He reminds some of Carolina's Steve Smith. Don't be afraid to draft him late. You can always replace him with a waiver wire pickup
later in the season.
Quarterbacks in Good Spots for the 2010 Season:
Matt Schaub -- Like we said last year,
"If he stays injury-free, he should rate as a steal." Rinse and repeat.
Aaron Rodgers -- If you play in a league where QB's score
more points than RB's, don't be afraid to reach for Rodgers early
in the first round. With top notch receivers and a dynamo
of a tight end there's no stopping
the points. If you look at last year's numbers you'll find other
top QB's had a few huge games and a few duds, whereas Rodgers
had more consistent numbers each week.
Peyton Manning -- Depth of talent at wide receiver in Indianapolis, talent at tight end,
and you know Manning is steaming over how the Super Bowl ended... Plus a
fairly easy passing SOS, and nice matchups during playoff time.
Joe Flacco -- The addition of WR Anquan Boldin should help
Baltimore's passing game to explode.
Brett Favre -- I think it would be tough to match
last year's statistics in Minnesota, expecially
with the Vikings' sudden receiver woes.
But he's still a value pick considering
where he goes in drafts. And don't forget how good the Vikings
O-line is.
Phillip Rivers -- Will he have his left tackle this season?
What about VJ?
These are the reasons Rivers has fallen down draft boards.
But balance that with the fact the Chargers' schedule is super light. All Rivers does is
produce. Good value here.
Eli Manning -- Getting better with age, and suddenly has a deep receiving core.
Carson Palmer -- Talent all around. 2010 should be his year. But the difficult schedule
in Cincinnati keeps him from
coming into the season as your #1 QB.
Chad Henne -- I liked Henne end of last season, even before Miami
signed Brandon Marshall. Expect bright things from Miami's passing game in 2010.
Word of caution-- if you saw Miami's preseason week 1 game, you're already nervous about starting Henne
in wet weather... What was up with those slippery ducks?
Kevin Kolb -- Steps into an offense surrounded by talent in Philadelphia.
Tight Ends in Good Spots for the 2010 Season:
Dallas Clark -- No-brainer in Indianapolis. Fair SOS for the TE position.
Antonio Gates -- Generally speaking the Chargers' schedule is a breeze,
but not to the TE position. Hmmmm. I'll believe it if I see Gates stopped.
Jason Witten -- Soft SOS for tight ends.
Jermichael Finley -- Last year we wrote,
"Opponents have to worry
about Green Bay's deep group of receivers.
The tight end position could flourish.
And this guy has it all..." In 2010 let's add, "the easiest SOS
for tight ends."
Visanthe Shiancoe -- The Vikings have such a strong running game
and good receivers.
There's not enough resources to cover the tight end.
Much like we wrote last season.
Brent Celek -- Nice SOS for TE's.
Defenses in Good Spots for the 2010 Season:
Dallas Cowboys -- As solid of a defense as you can find.
Green Bay Packers -- Dom Capers working his magic.
Minnesota Vikings -- They'll be no shortage of sacks from this group.
San Francisco 49ers -- Easy schedule for this solid unit.
Pittsburgh Steelers -- Getting Troy Polamalu back is a good place to be.
Baltimore Ravens -- Tremendous front seven.
New York Jets -- Defensive mastermind Rex Ryan is the head coach.
Need to get Darrelle Revis signed.
Cincinnati Bengals -- Defense has gone from laughing stock to solid through and through.
Kickers in Good Spots for the 2010 Season:
Nate Kaeding -- Easy SOS. If the Chargers struggle to score TD's
without WR Vincent Jackson and LT Marcus McNeill, that could result in even more field goal
opportunities.
Ryan Longwell -- Stacked offense in Minnesota. Indoors for many contests.
Stephen Gostkowski -- The Patriots face a tough schedule... So if they fail
to punch the ball into the end zone you're looking at lots of field goal attempts.
Rob Bironas -- A beast.
Now continuing on with the all important
fantasy football tip... Strength of schedule.
Strength of Schedule / Weakness of schedule:
Whatever you want to
name it,
if there’s one free fantasy football draft tip you should take away, it’s
to use those strength of schedule charts that are popping up all over the
internet. Just remember to make adjustments for injury situations
and off-season roster moves because those charts don't always
reflect reality!
For example, the Minnesota Vikings picked up pass rushing dynamo Jared Allen from the Chiefs in '08.
Strength of schedule charts based on the prior season's statistics didn't reflect this newly added power to the Vikings' defensive line.
Allen's presence negatively impacted the performances of offensive players facing the Vikings.
Meanwhile, teams playing the Chiefs that season had it easy.
Keep such key offseason player changes at the forefront of your mind when using strength of schedule to either increase the value of players
on your fantasy football draft board or decrease their value accordingly.
Teams Facing Easier Schedules in 2010:
See the following list of teams with light schedules in
2010. Try to draft players on these teams when faced with
a choice of comparable players on other teams.
Teams Facing Easy Defensive Schedules That Are Also Expected to Have Top
Offenses of Their Own, Able to Take Full Advantage of the Weak Schedule:
- New Orleans Saints
- San Diego Chargers
Teams Facing Easy Defensive Schedules, But Not Expected to Have Top of the Line Offenses to Take Full Advantage of the Situation:
Even so, a few gems can usually still be found here.
- Arizona Cardinals
- Lost QB Kurt Warner to Retirement
- Carolina Panthers
- Chicago Bears
- Denver Broncos
- Kansas City Chiefs
- San Francisco 49ers
-- Improved QB Play Would Move Them Up
- Seattle Seahawks
We would be remiss if we didn't point out the following...
Teams Facing Tougher Defensive Schedules Than Above, But still Expected to Have Offenses
Good Enough To Score Points against Most Teams:
- Atlanta Falcons
- Baltimore Ravens
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Dallas Cowboys
- Green Bay Packers
- Houston Texans
- Indianapolis Colts
- New York Jets
- Miami Dolphins
- Minnesota Vikings
- New England Patriots
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Philadelphia Eagles
- New York Giants
- Tennessee Titans
You should be able to find success with players in the above category in spite of their
difficult schedules.
When thinking of strength of schedule, make a note if a team
has a weak rushing defense
unable to keep opposing offenses from chewing up the game clock
against them. If so, it can lead to a fantasy football double whammy
where offensive players on such teams get fewer opportunities overall...
Especially if playing against a tougher defensive schedule!
Difficult Schedules
2010 Double Whammy Teams - 3 Categories:
1) Have a Defense That's Expected to Be Poor Stopping the Run
And Face a Tough Defensive Schedule in 2010:
The following is a list of fantasy football double whammy teams that
face defensively tough schedules in 2010 and don’t appear to have
defenses strong enough to keep opposing offenses from chewing
up the game clock on them, thus limiting the attempts of their own offensive
players to score, including during prevent defense time when trailing and
looking for garbage fantasy football points.
Beware of drafting offensive players from double whammy teams near
the average draft position seen in fantasy football mock draft
and live draft results, as you might be over paying.
The following teams qualify as double whammy teams in this category in 2010.
- Buffalo Bills
- Cleveland Browns
2) Have a Defense That's Expected to Be Poor Stopping the Run, Facing an Easier Defensive Schedule Than the Above Teams,
But Their Own Offense is Expected to be Weak or One Dimensional:
The following category of double whammy teams face schedules that aren’t the toughest
from a defensive opponent standpoint, but their own offenses may simply
not be good enough to capitalize on the favorable scheduling situation,
while at the same time their own defense may not be able to keep the ball
away from opposing offenses. Therefore, with few exceptions,
use a bit of caution when drafting offensive players from these double whammy
teams, valuing them lower than you normally would.
- Oakland Raiders
- St. Louis Rams
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3) Have a Defense That's Expected to Be Good Stopping the Run, But Are Facing a Tough Defensive Schedule,
And Are Expected to Have a Weak or One Dimensional Offense Due to Difficult Scheduling:
These double whammy teams face defensively tough schedules, but have above average
defenses of their own more than capable of getting the ball back to their own offense for more chances.
However, these teams are not known to be
offensively minded, so the sheer number of games they're scheduled to play
versus teams with good defenses cannot be ignored, as the potential for many
defensive struggles exists... Therefore with few exceptions use
caution and beware of drafting too many
offensive players from these double whammy teams.
- Detroit Lions
-- Transformed Defensive Line (Could Be Jumping the Gun Projecting Improved Defense)
- Washington Redskins
2010 Bubble Double Whammy Teams
Teams Expected to Have Decent Offenses, But Also Expected to Have Trouble Stopping the Run, Facing Tough Defensive Schedules:
These teams are on the double whammy bubble. They face tough defensive
schedules in 2010 and have trouble stopping the run, but their offenses
can still score... Even though teams in this category have some offense, it’s important that you
do not discount the number of tough defensive games on their schedules.
So value players on these teams slightly lower than you
normally would. However, keep in mind that teams in this category could provide
garbage time points against prevent defenses late in games. So don't be afraid to
draft at some point.
Trimming Your Draft Board:
Everyone knows that compiling a draft board can be a lot of work,
and the draft moves fast. You need a good plan to stay focused in the
heat of the moment. So when it comes to your draft sheet, look for ways
to trim the fat and make your draft board leaner and meaner.
Be willing
to think about what NFL players you don’t want to draft, because of
their difficult schedules, in addition to those players that you
do want to draft because of their easier schedules. The quicker
you can say, “no” to drafting a player when scanning up and
down the available players left in your draft at any moment
in time, the quicker you can get to a player you know is a
good pick for your team.
Divide Your Draft Board into 2 Key Columns:
On the left put players with easy schedules.
On the right put players with harder schedules, especially if they are
on Double Whammy Teams. This can help you focus and improve
you odds of putting together a team of players well positioned for success,
which is especially important if you're betting large sums of money
to win your league.
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Moving on now with more tips on how to trim your fantasy football draft board.
Team / Player Draft Day Avoidance:
Before the NFL season begins, FootballLOCKS.com performs a study of the
strength of each team’s schedule for the upcoming season to make
NFL predictions.
If you read the
free
pro football predictions you can see the emphasis placed on scheduling as
an element of making annual NFL football predictions against Las Vegas regular season NFL win totals.
By the way, if you're betting NFL football this season, check out the preseason
prognostications, you may find a few free NFL football betting tips.
Use the scheduling angle to make fantasy football predictions too.
Case in point the 2007 Buffalo Bills
were scheduled to play twelve games versus teams that finished
at .500 or better in 2006, including a whopping 8 games versus teams that made the playoffs
the previous year. They had lost Willis McGahee, and several key players on defense. In general we liked Lee Evans
as much as anybody, but we cautioned you to avoid him in the draft. And it was good advice as his yardage dropped
34% year over year and his touchdowns fell off by 37.5%... Call it a 35% drop off on average overall.
Translation?
In a 16 player draft you would have had to get Lee Evans 5 to 6 rounds later (16 * 35% = 5.6) than the average projection based on his previous season's
numbers to break even on the pick!
So consider letting players with harder schedules fall to you in later rounds.
The conclusion is to beware of placing too much value on players
in potentially tough scheduling situations. Otherwise the odds could turn
against you costing you the money you bet in your fantasy football league.
So make notes of which teams have tough schedules in the upcoming season.
Avoiding drafting players on teams with the most brutal
schedules, especially from the Double Whammy Teams, unless they fall to you in much later rounds making them value
picks. It's one of the best fantasy football spins going.
So pay close attention to the quality of defenses your draft prospects are
slated to play against and trim your draft board accordingly.
Your Leaner, Meaner Fantasy Football Draft:
Now that we’ve ironed out a strategy for moving players into two columns
on your draft board;
- The easy schedule column and/or potent offense column
- The avoid column where you'll only be happy to
pounce if they fall a few rounds lower in the draft than you
normally would expect them to be drafted
Hopefully your odds of winning your fantasy league should
be improved-- as you will have a much
clearer path to fantasy football draft day dominance.
Keep reading for a piece on teams with
Jekyll & Hyde schedules.
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Jekyll and Hyde schedules
What's a Jekyll and Hyde schedule you ask?
A Jekyll and Hyde schedule is when a team
plays a very easy schedule in one part of the season, and then a very difficult
schedule in another part of the season.
Teams can have difficult first half
schedules and easy second half schedules, or easy first half schedules, and hard second half schedules.
Then there's inverted Jekyll and Hyde schedule's
with easy in the first quarter, difficult in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, and then easy again in
the 4th quarter of the season.
The opposite can also hold true. For example,
difficult in the first quarter, easy in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, and then difficult again in
the 4th quarter of the season.
The bottom line is to structure some of your ff draft and trading activity around the
presence of Jekyll and Hyde schedules. It's been one of my most
potent fantasy football tactics. Doing so can help you win your fantasy football league.
I've given you the concept. It's up to you to comb through your players' schedules to see
who has a tough run games that may warrant making a trade to get out of a soon to be falling stock!
Fantasy Football Draft Room Mentality:
It's your turn to draft. You have a certain player in mind who you think will have a big year.
But there are five or six other players on the typical fantasy
football player rankings charts listed ahead of your guy... Furthermore,
you know if you wait for your next pick,
he'll be gone.
Should you gamble and pick the player ahead on the chart, hoping your guy will still be there?
Or should you grab the player you like? Someone you think will have a huge year...
Here's what I do... If the player is a stud at his position, and the other players whom are
ranked ahead aren't
the top players at their positions, then I
draft the player I want, regardless of what somebody else's
player ranking chart shows...
If the player suits your team, then
grabbing that player just might make your season. You have to ask yourself,
"If I don't take this player now, what will be left at this position
when my next pick rolls around?"
Don't be afraid to reach a little for great players. Because in the end, a team with great players usually performs
well. That's our draft mentality for you.
Click the following for a list of NFL bye weeks
for your fantasy football team balancing act. As always, make sure you have substitute players for those
pesky byes. There's nothing like the sinking feeling of facing a key opponent in your league
while short-handed because you didn't plan ahead for half decent subs.
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