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Free Fantasy Football Strategies:
If you’re looking for a few free fantasy football tips for the 2008
NFL season to improve your fantasy football odds, FootballLOCKS.com has a few FF tactics
for you. Fantasy football strategy topics below include;
We’re not going to
give you the obvious fantasy football cheat sheet info readily available
from many sites that deal exclusively in fantasy football. We’ll skip
the "what to do with the first pick" fantasy football advice other than to say
as long as these guys stay injury free, you should get plenty of production out of
LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson or Brian Westbrook no matter how you spin it.
Drafting a Quarterback in the Top 5:
It used to be that Peyton Manning was the QB to go in the top 5 of drafts.
But after last season's record breaking year, Tom Brady has assumed the role.
The question is-- will the Patriots try to pass as much as they did last season?
The truth is
Randy Moss got a little burned out by the time the playoffs hit.
And it may have impacted the Patriots' ability to win the Super Bowl.
In my opinion the Patriots will have a
new attitude this season.
Last year was about passing records and perfection. I think this year will be about
having enough juice at the end of the season to win the big game. My first fantasy football spin is simply
that New England could be doing less passing and more running this season. That bring us to one of my top FF spins
of the year... I think Laurence Maroney will break out.
2008 Fantasy Football Sleepers
& Draft Day Steals:
Running Backs in Good Spots for the 2008 Season:
I'm expecting Laurence Maroney to have a strong season.
He could be one of the top sleepers. Also consider how the Patriots lost
half their secondary in the off-season. Asante Samuel and Randall Gay are gone.
And the Patriots may not want to get into a bunch of shootouts.
They could be game planning to run, run, run, and keep the ball away from the opposition.
I'm not saying Tom Brady won't put up awesome numbers. I'm just not convinced he'll be
playing on a record breaking passing pace. I think Maroney will be the beneficiary of
a change in game plan.
Continuing on with more
free fantasy football information,
Jamal Lewis is another RB high on my list in 2008. Cleveland's passing attack is potent. So is
their offensive line. With the addition of Donte' Stallworth the opposition will
have to focus even more on the pass.
There's no reason why Lewis shouldn't have another banner season.
Thomas Jones is another running back I'm high on this season.
The Jets grabbed left guard Alan Faneca from the Steelers and right tackle Damien Woody from Detroit to beef up their offensive line during the off season.
Do you know why the Steelers have had such a great running game for so many years?
Because
Faneca is a great run blocker. Meanwhile, Woody is much better at right guard than at center.
I liked Thomas Jones even before the Jets got Favre... Now with Favre making the Jets passing game a bigger
threat, look for Jones to have a solid season.
Do I really need to write about
Marion Barber?
This guy is a touchdown machine. I really can't remember seeing a more ferocious running back near the goal line
than Barber. I'm not too fazed by the addition of Felix Jones. Barber was already splitting carries
with Julius Jones. And he'll still get everything at the goal line. I don't need to tell you how
stacked Dallas' offensive line is.
Let's talk about Marshawn Lynch. I love the way this guy runs. But I don't really care for the way he drives.
Certainly worth taking this season, unless you're the type that likes to invest in socially responsible mutual funds. 'Nuff said.
Chester Taylor is a guy who has proven he can post big yardage when he starts. The Vikings have great run blockers up front, so if you're
looking for a gamble pick near the end of your draft, or you want to mess up somebody else's handcuff pick, Taylor is the guy if Adrian Peterson should go down with an injury.
To a lesser extent you can apply similar thinking to the unproven Felix Jones in Dallas. They have a great offensive line. If Barber
gets hurt, Felix could shine.
Now let's check out some WR's in good situations this season.
Wide Receivers in Good Spots for the 2008 Season:
Pencil in Donte' Stallworth as a sleeper at wide receiver.
His reps were limited in New England because Moss and Welker were so solid.
When healthy, Stallworth can be a dynamo. And with defenses
keying on Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow in the passing game, Donte'
could be the one to go wild... Think, who will be covering him?
Marvin Harrison -- will be bounce back? Is he too old?
We don't think so. He's always kept in great shape. And he had a monster season
when he was 34. We have yet to see Harrison stopped by age. Only by an injury last season.
There is a difference. We're betting he will bounce back, perhaps to the chagrin
of Reggie Wayne's numbers...
Do you remember last season when people were wondering
how Moss would do with the Patriots? After week 1 everyone was kicking
themselves for not taking a chance on him.
I see the same "kicking of thyself" happening around the country by those
who don't take a chance on Harrison in the 6th or 7th rounds of their
drafts. Of course the Colts' schedule isn't easy. But that never
stopped Harrison before.
Torry Holt ended up with pretty solid numbers in '07, especially when you consider
how beat up the rest of the Rams offense was.
So beware of downgrading Holt based on last season's performance.
Sure the Rams' offensive line aren't a group of world beaters (Pace is),
but almost anything will beat last season's pass protection.
The stock of
Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery are up, up, up.
One of these receivers should have a monster year.
I already liked them both coming into 2008 just based on the Jets' offensive line
improvements made during the off season with the signings of Faneca and Woody.
Yes that was even with Pennington at QB! Do you realize that last season
Cotchery caught 82 passes for 1,130 yards in 15 games between Pennington and Clemens?
I can only imagine what he'll do with Favre at the helm and a running game that defenses also have
to pay attention to thanks to the addition of Faneca.
In the past, Coles has scored more TD's than Cotchery. But I have a feeling Jerricho
will break out in 2008.
Coming into last season we talked about how
Wes Welker had some tremendous yardage numbers as the third receiver
on a Miami team not known for strength in the passing game. I knew he would be a dynamo in New England.
And even though I expect New England to run more this season, Wes should still post great numbers
in the short passing game designed to pick up first downs on third and short when teams are set up
to defend the run... He's almost impossible to stop in the short passing game.
Greg Jennings knows how to get open deep. He's not the most athletic receiver, but so what?
Was Larry Bird the most athletic forward in hoops?
Heck no, but he knew how to create open looks to the hoop by tricking his defenders into
the wrong position. Jennings does the same. And guys like that will always be open.
Marques Colston is the beneficiary of a solid passing attack and a weak defense that can leave the Saints playing from behind.
Keep an eye on teammate Robert Meachem who grew up while working out this off-season with veteran David Patten.
Plaxico Burress and the Giants face a tough schedule, but Plaxico is equally hard to stop. He should be healthier this season,
and he has little competition from teammates for looks.
Chris Chambers and the Chargers face such an easy schedule.
I know Chambers isn't the best receiver in the NFL. But I just can't see him not putting up some nice numbers this year.
Patrick Crayton -
the Cowboys' o-line is so good, that when combined with Romo's mobility, almost any receiver ought to be able to shine.
If there's any injury situation at WR this season in Dallas, pounce on whomever is third
on the depth chart, whether it's Miles Austin, Sam Hurd, or Isaiah Stanback... In fact, claim the #3 guy off waivers
once it's known (when the season starts).
Quarterbacks in Good Spots for the 2008 Season:
Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, and Matt Hasselbeck all face easy schedules in 2008.
Some of these QB's you'll have to pay through the nose to get. Others can be picked up on sale.
Jake Delhomme also has an easy schedule. But he's a real gamble.
Tight Ends in Good Spots for the 2008 Season:
Antonio Gates, Jeremy Shockey, and Benjamin Watson
all face light schedules in 2008.
Meanwhile,
Dallas Clark, Jason Witten, Kellen Winslow, and Kevin Boss face tougher
schedules in 2008-- but they play in stacked offenses so should
produce solid points.
Looking at a younger player like Denver's Tony Scheffler you must consider he only started
7 games last season and still put up solid numbers. Projecting last season's numbers over 16 games and he's
not that far behind Witten, Gonzales, Winslow, and Gates! Scheffler should be a great value pick in a dynasty league.
Defenses in Good Spots for the 2008 Season:
The Minnesota Vikings are tremendous at stopping the run.
This season they added Jared Allen who recorded 15 1/2 sacks last season in only
14 games with the Chiefs. We expect Allen will turn the Vikings' defense into
a fantasy winner in 2008.
The Dallas Cowboys ought to have a monster season on defense.
Ellis and Ware are sack machines. And they added Zach Thomas to their linebacking group
and Pacman Jones to their secondary. 'Nuff said.
The San Diego Chargers face a light schedule filled with offensively challenged teams.
There's no reason not to consider their defensive unit for big numbers.
The New England Patriots also face plenty of weak offensive opponents. Sure they lost some key members
of their secondary. But, one has to figure they'll still post plenty of points.
The Seattle Seahawks are another defense that for the most part will face a light slate of opponents.
Finally, don't forget about the Super Bowl champs. The defense of the New York Giants
is one tough unit.
Kickers in Good Spots for the 2008 Season:
Nate Kaeding of the Chargers and Stephen Gostkowski of the Patriots play on teams with stacked offenses
facing easy schedules in 2008. They should do well.
Nick Folk of Dallas, Adam Vinatieri of the Colts, Phil Dawson of Cleveland, Shayne Graham of Cincinnati, and even Josh Scobee
of the Jaguars play on teams
expected to have high scoring offenses in 2008, even though they are facing tough schedules.
Rob Bironas of Tennessee and Mason Crosby of Green Bay are beasts, but Crosby has to kick at Lambeau.
Now continuing on with the all important
fantasy football tip... Strength of schedule.
Strength of Schedule / Weakness of schedule:
Whatever you want to
name it,
if there’s one free fantasy football draft tip you should take away, it’s
to use those strength of schedule charts that are popping up all over the
internet. Just remember to make adjustments for injury situations
and off-season roster moves because those charts don't always
reflect reality!
For example, the Minnesota Vikings picked up pass rushing dynamo Jared Allen from the Chiefs.
Strength of schedule charts don't reflect this added power to the Vikings' defensive line.
But it will surely negatively impact offensive players on the Bears, Packers, and Lions who have to face this defense twice a year.
Meanwhile, teams playing the Chiefs twice will catch a break as Allen's sack threat has gone bye-bye with the Chiefs'
plan to rebuild.
Use strength of schedule to either increase the value of players
on your fantasy football draft board or decrease the value accordingly.
Teams Facing Easier Schedules in 2008:
See the following list of teams with light schedules in
2008. Try to draft players on these teams when faced with
a choice of comparable players on other teams.
Teams Facing Easy Defensive Schedules That Are Also Expected to Have Good
Offenses of Their Own to Take Advantage of the Weak Schedule:
- New England Patriots
- San Diego Chargers
- New Orleans Saints
- New York Jets
- Seattle Seahawks
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Moved up. Offensive line looks solid (but 3 RB's)
Teams Facing Easy Defensive Schedules, but Not Expected to Have Top of the Line Offenses to Take Advantage of the Situation:
Even so, a few gems can usually still be found here.
- Arizona Cardinals - Matt Leinart puts them here
- Carolina Panthers - Questions about Delhomme and Smith
- Denver Broncos
- St. Louis Rams - Offensive line woes?
We would be remiss if we didn't point out the following...
Teams Facing Tougher Defensive Schedules, but still Expected to Have Offenses
Good Enough To Score Points against Most Teams:
- Cleveland Browns
- Dallas Cowboys
- Indianapolis Colts
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- New York Giants
You should be able to find success with players in this category in spite of their
difficult schedule.
When thinking of strength of schedule, make a note if a team
has a weak rushing defense
unable to keep opposing offenses from chewing up the game clock
against them. If so, it can lead to a fantasy football double whammy
where offensive players on such teams get fewer opportunities overall...
Especially if playing against a tougher defensive schedule!
Difficult Schedules
2008 Double Whammy Teams - 3 Categories:
1) Have a Defense That's Expected to Be Poor Stopping the Run
And Face a Tough Defensive Schedule in 2008:
The following is a list of fantasy football double whammy teams that
face defensively tough schedules in 2008 and don’t appear to have
defenses strong enough to keep opposing offenses from chewing
up the game clock on them, thus limiting the attempts of their own offensive
players including during prevent defense time when trailing and
looking for garbage fantasy football points.
Beware of drafting offensive players from double whammy teams near
the average draft position seen in fantasy football mock draft
and live draft results, as you might be over paying.
The following teams qualify as double whammy teams in this category in 2008.
2) Have a Defense That's Expected to Be Poor Stopping the Run, Facing an Easier Defensive Schedule Than the Above Teams,
But Their Own Offense is Expected to be Weak or One Dimensional:
The following category of double whammy teams face schedules that aren’t the toughest
from a defensive opponent standpoint, but their own offenses may simply
not be good enough to capitalize on the favorable scheduling situation,
while at the same time their own defense may not be able to keep the ball
away from opposing offenses. Therefore, with few exceptions,
use a bit of caution when drafting offensive players from these double whammy
teams, valuing them lower than you normally would.
- Atlanta Falcons
- Buffalo Bills
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Miami Dolphins
- Oakland Raiders
- San Francisco 49ers
3) Have a Defense That's Expected to Be Good Stopping the Run, But Are Facing a Tough Defensive Schedule,
And Are Expected to Have a Weak or One Dimensional Offense:
These double whammy teams face defensively tough schedules, but have above average
defenses of their own more than capable of getting the ball back to their own offense for more chances.
However, these teams are not known to be
offensively minded, so the sheer number of games they're scheduled to play
versus teams with good defenses cannot be ignored, as the potential for many
defensive struggles exists... Therefore with few exceptions use
caution and beware of drafting too many
offensive players from these double whammy teams.
- Baltimore Ravens
- Chicago Bears
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Tennessee Titans
- Washington Redskins
2008 Bubble Double Whammy Teams
Teams Expected to Have Decent Offenses, But Also Expected to Have Trouble Stopping the Run, Facing Tough Defensive Schedules:
These teams are on the double whammy bubble. They face tough defensive
schedules in 2008 and have trouble stopping the run, but their offenses
can still score... Even though teams in this category have above some offense, it’s important that you
do not discount the number of tough defensive games on their schedules.
So value players on these teams slightly lower than you
normally would. However, keep in mind teams in this category could provide
garbage time points against prevent defenses late in games. So don't be afraid to
draft at some point.
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Houston Texans
Trimming Your Draft Board:
Everyone knows that compiling a draft board can be a lot of work,
and the draft moves fast. You need a good plan to stay focused in the
heat of the moment. So when it comes to your draft sheet, look for ways
to trim the fat and make your draft board leaner and meaner.
Be willing
to think about what NFL players you don’t want to draft, because of
their difficult schedules, in addition to those players that you
do want to draft because of their easier schedules. The quicker
you can say, “no” to drafting a player when scanning up and
down the available players left in your draft at any moment
in time, the quicker you can get to a player you know is a
good pick for your team.
Divide Your Draft Board into 2 Key Columns:
On the left put players with easy schedules.
On the right put players with harder schedules, especially if they are
on Double Whammy Teams. This can help you focus and improve
you odds of putting together a team of players well positioned for success,
which is especially important if you're betting large sums of money
to win your league.
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Moving on now with more tips on how to trim your fantasy football draft board.
Team / Player Draft Day Avoidance:
Before the NFL season begins, FootballLOCKS.com performs a study of the
strength of each team’s schedule for the upcoming season to make
NFL predictions.
If you read the
free
pro football predictions you can see the emphasis placed on scheduling as
an element of making annual NFL football predictions against Las Vegas regular season NFL win totals.
By the way, if you're betting NFL football this season, check out the preseason
prognostications, you may find a few free NFL football betting tips.
Use the scheduling angle to make fantasy football predictions too.
Case in point the 2007 Buffalo Bills
were scheduled to play twelve games versus teams that finished
at .500 or better in 2006, including a whopping 8 games versus teams that made the playoffs
the previous year. They had lost Willis McGahee, and several key players on defense. In general we like Lee Evans
as much as anybody, but we cautioned to avoid him in the draft. And it was good advice as his yardage dropped
34% year over year from 2006 to 2007, and his touchdowns fell off by 37.5%... Call it a 35% drop off on average overall.
Translation?
In a 16 player draft you would have had to get Lee Evans 5 to 6 rounds later (16 * 35% = 5.6) than the average projection based on his previous season's
numbers to break even on the pick!
So consider letting players with harder schedules fall to you in later rounds.
The conclusion is to beware of placing too much value on players
in potentially tough scheduling situations. Otherwise the odds could turn
against you costing you the money you bet in your fantasy football league.
So make notes of which teams have tough schedules in the upcoming season.
Avoiding drafting players on teams with the most brutal
schedules, especially from the Double Whammy Teams, unless they fall to you in much later rounds making them value
picks. It's one of the best fantasy football spins going.
So pay close attention to the quality of defenses your draft prospects are
slated to play against and trim your draft board accordingly.
Your Leaner, Meaner Fantasy Football Draft:
Now that we’ve ironed out a strategy for moving players into two columns
on your draft board;
- The easy schedule column and/or potent offense column
- The avoid column where you'll only be happy to
pounce if they fall a few rounds lower in the draft than you
normally would expect them to be drafted
Hopefully your odds of winning your fantasy league should
be improved-- as you will have a much
clearer path to fantasy football draft day dominance.
Keep reading for a piece on teams with
Jekyll & Hyde schedules.
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Jekyll and Hyde schedules
(Please remember to cite FootballLOCKS.com as the source when writing about
Jekyll and Hyde schedules, or at least link.)
What's a Jekyll and Hyde schedule you ask?
A Jekyll and Hyde schedule is when a team
plays a very easy schedule in one part of the season, and then a very difficult
schedule in another part of the season.
Teams can have difficult first half
schedules and easy second half schedules, or easy first half schedules, and hard second half schedules.
Then there's inverted Jekyll and Hyde schedule's
with easy in the first quarter, difficult in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, and then easy again in
the 4th quarter of the season.
The opposite can also hold true. For example,
difficult in the first quarter, easy in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, and then difficult again in
the 4th quarter of the season.
The bottom line is to structure some of your ff draft and trading activity around the
presence of Jekyll and Hyde schedules. It's been one of my most
potent fantasy football tactics. Doing so can help you win your fantasy football league.
I've given you the concept. It's up to you to comb through your players' schedules to see
who has a tough run games that may warrant making a trade to get out of a soon to be falling stock.
Fantasy Football Draft Room Mentality:
It's your turn to draft. You have a certain player in mind who you think will have a big year.
But there are five or six other players on the typical fantasy
football player rankings charts listed ahead of your guy... Furthermore,
you know if you wait for your next pick,
he'll be gone.
Should you gamble and pick the player ahead on the chart, hoping your guy will still be there?
Or should you grab the player you like? Someone you think will have a huge year...
Here's what I do... If the player is a stud at his position, and the other players whom are
ranked ahead aren't
the top players at their positions, then I
draft the player I want, regardless of what somebody else's
player ranking chart shows...
If the player suits your team, then
grabbing a player like Drew Brees extra early rather than an average running back,
or grabbing Antonio Gates early just might make your season... On the down side, let's
say it doesn't work out...
Maybe Brees gets hurt. Or maybe Gates has a bad season.
Guess what?
It's really not your fault. Blame it on the player. They're certainly making enough money to shoulder
some of the blame in your own mind! And there's always next year.
Don't be afraid to reach for great players. Because in the end, a team with great players usually performs.....
Great! And that's my draft mentality for you.
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