Backwards Odds NFL Handicapping. A Reverse
Engineering Approach to NFL Football Handicapping...
A primer on how FootballLOCKS.com makes
NFL football picks using its backwards
odds handicapping of Las Vegas NFL football lines & point spreads;
in an effort to uncover possible indications in the line as to which teams NFL odds making experts
& insiders might potentially think have an edge to cover the spread...
Backwards Odds NFL capping Starts With
Questioning Methods That Seem Like They Should Work Well For Making Expert NFL Game Picks,
But Rarely Seem to Perform:
When most NFL football handicappers embark
on a mission to make their best weekly NFL picks, they call upon the typical
NFL stats coupled with their general knowledge of pro football to try to determine
which team has the best chance to cover the Vegas NFL spread in a given game.
But many times
they end up disappointed with the performance of their
NFL expert picks. And are left
to wonder why their pro football handicapping techniques weren't able to turn up consistent winning NFL picks.
Get ready for a theory about relying on stats, trends, general football knowledge,
and other publicly known NFL betting information to make NFL
predictions to try to beat your friendly neighborhood Vegas sports book out of its money...
It may not be the best way to make winning football picks versus Las Vegas
NFL betting lines. NFL Vegas odds makers have access to just as many stats football betting information
Yet this is how most football gambling beginners and NFL handicappers
make their NFL gambling picks.
It's no wonder
few so called best online betting sites
seem to produce enough winning NFL betting picks to
beat Las Vegas odds over the long haul. Yet more and more sports handicapping services
are popping up everyday... Keep reading for more NFL odds making information...
To make enough winning NFL football selections to compete with Las Vegas
football lines over the long run, it may be necessary to analyze Las Vegas football lines
in reverse to attempt to match the perspective of Las Vegas sports odds makers
who specialize in understanding how
the money flow of the sports betting public as well as insiders can potentially affect NFL lines.
Matching the perspective of Vegas odds makers is something we endeavor to do at
using our football betting method whereby Las Vegas
NFL betting odds
are attempted to be "reverse engineered" in an effort to logicize the origin of the line and why it
has landed on a certain number value at your favorite Las Vegas sportsbook.
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backwards odds handicapped plays... Or read
more about FootballLOCKS.com's method
for making NFL football betting picks.
With Backwards Odds capping,
instead of looking at Las Vegas football lines for a given week and then
making football predictions about
which teams may cover the line, FootballLOCKS.com first looks backwards in an effort to
determine why the football line for a given game has been set at a particular number value,
why the line may have been adjusted to a particular value, and why a particular NFL line
may have been maintained at a particular odds line value at various Las Vegas sportsbooks.
How did the NFL football line originate? Why is this line the way it is?
This is the FootballLOCKS.com approach to making selections. This method
may also be applied to making other sports picks as well.
So by analyzing the line in reverse; a "reverse engineering" football handicapping
system, we're potentially able to do a couple of things
that might increase the chances of identifying pro football betting picks with a greater
probability of winning than without such an NFL handicapping method:
1) Shift the focus away from using
NFL stats and general public football gambling information to make
NFL football predictions.
2) Redirect focus towards potentially finding indications
in the Vegas NFL line that may help identify which team in a given game NFL football odds makers could
has the better chance to cover the NFL game spread.
Indications in Las Vegas NFL Football Lines &
Point Spreads Are What We're Attempting to Find
in an Effort to Potentially Identify Which Team NFL Odds Makers & Insiders
Might Possibly Think Has a Better Chance to Cover the Line in a Given Games:
By thinking in Backwards Odds NFL football handicapping terms,
a whole new light is shed on the pursuit of wagering on football.
You're probably not going to find this kind of NFL football betting thinking
at any other online
NFL gambling resources.
Beware of any self proclaimed, best online sports betting information portals
pirating FootballLOCKS.com's NFL betting concepts.
If you bet NFL football with any
kind of regularity, it may be worth your while to make such consideration before betting NFL
football games in any given week.
However, most who bet football probably use 99% of
their time trying to find the best NFL football betting odds.
And while that's a good idea when betting on NFL football games,
they're probably not even considering the implications of why various football odds lines are priced a certain way.
In our opinion, that's a risky way to engage in the art of betting football.
Even many professional NFL cappers will issue their best NFL football bet of the week without even thinking about the
line. We think that's no way to operate a so called top gambling site
devoted to NFL football betting online when
NFL capping customers are serious about winning money betting on football,
attempting to bet on football for a living.
Handicapping NFL & Backwards Odds:
We believe the key to using this NFL handicapping system is to take the position that
Las Vegas' NFL odds lines and NFL point spreads are the oddsmakers'
instrument for dividing the monetary betting action
in half for a given NFL game, or in any other percentage break up they may desire...
Consider that by receiving even amounts of
football bets on opposite sides of NFL games, Vegas for example on an $11 NFL bet
to win $10
can keep $11 from the losing bet
while paying out $10 on the winning NFL bet, thereby pocketing $1.
NFL odds and NFL lines at values designed to generate even
football betting activity or "money flow,"
Vegas can eliminate its risk for loss while maximize its chances of generating
a profit based on a percentage of the total money flow on the game. Hence most would agree the purpose of
Vegas' NFL football betting lines is to control the money flow by influencing the NFL
sports betting populations' NFL wagering decisions via use of the betting line.
If you like to bet on NFL football, this may potentially be the type of NFL sports betting information
that makes sense to consider before betting on NFL football games each week.
At any rate, here comes a further bit on the above NFL handicapping angle that you may not find at any of the so called
best online sports gambling sites...
Las Vegas NFL Football Odds - A Sophisticated Tool Which Could Potentially be Used to Influence the
Weekly NFL Game predictions of NFL Bettors and Pro Football Handicappers:
The very existence of
NFL lines and point spreads potentially gives Las Vegas
NFL oddsmakers an element of control over how the general sports betting population
may decide to bet on NFL in a given game...
We doubt many an NFL handicapper knows to ask
if they are making a given NFL pick because the
NFL Vegas odds
actually influenced their decision to make that
selection through the use of setting and moving various
NFL point spreads and NFL football betting odds to potentially balance the action.
As mentioned the line on a game is generally considered the oddsmakers' assessment of what
particular NFL football odds line number value will split the money flow
from the market of NFL bettors wagering on a given game.
Therefore it's important to note that NFL lines are not the
oddsmaker's expected differential in the final score on a given game.
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In order to use to potentially reverse engineer NFL lines
and possibly uncover top betting ideas, it may be important
to understand how Vegas odds makers
use NFL betting lines to divide the money flow in half.
Are you ready to take a further glimpse into the inner workings of NFL Las Vegas odds makers and
NFL point spreads?
How NFL Odds Makers May Use Pro Football Odds and Pro Football Point Spreads
to Keep NFL Betting Action Divided in Half...
Las Vegas' odds makers are experts at using NFL lines and point spreads
to keep betting action divided for Vegas' profit purposes.
By making adjustments
to any given line or point spread odds makers may be able to sway
NFL bettors to wager on NFL teams that have less betting action.
Ask yourself, how often when gambling on NFL football
have you been undecided on a game with a 3 point
spread only to make your football bet after the line moved
down to 2 1/2 or up to 3 1/2... Perhaps you weren't going to bet the NFL game at all.
The movement in the line
was Vegas effort to control the money flow.
The movement in the NFL spread can have a direct result
on the general publics' pro football betting decisions.
Of course, when NFL lines and
point spreads are moved, it can also sway
bettors who have already placed an NFL bet on a game to lay down
additional bets on that game... Or to even reverse their
direction and bet the
other way to try to "middle the game" and win both football bets.
But as far as Vegas' odds makers are concerned,
keeping sports betting action split at each sports odds line number (NFL money odds number)
or point spread in general is the key... Doing so allows
Vegas to make its expected profit from sports gambling operations.
So by flexing mastery over
NFL odds and
Las Vegas odds makers potentially can have an amazing
amount of control over amounts that get wagered on various football games.
However, before NFL odds makers can even begin to work the
line, they must choose a starting point
or "opening Vegas line" for the NFL game.
The Goal Of Odds Makers When Creating Vegas' Opening
NFL Lines and Point Spreads:
When creating opening lines, the incentive for Vegas' odds makers is
to choose football lines
that will do a fast, efficient job of splitting
the money flow or controlling the direction
of the herd. If an opening line doesn't draw even action, the sooner
the line can be adjusted to draw even action,
the more profit Vegas can line up for itself, if indeed Vegas wants even action for that
Phrased another way-- the more a line needs to be adjusted
to keep betting action even,
the more overall risk Vegas is exposed to, and the lower the
profit Vegas stands to make.
This is because Vegas can get stuck with
uneven betting action from those that bet on NFL football
for any given NFL odds line or NFL point
spread number, which could cut into profits assuming Vegas sports books want even action for a game.
Therefore, you can
see that Las Vegas' NFL odds makers would be very interested in
knowing what specific
NFL point spread number or NFL odds line number
would draw even betting action for a given game before having
the opening line for that game to the
But before odds makers could know
what an opening line on a given game would need to be set at
to draw even football betting action, NFL football odds makers
would want to know in advance how much money
NFL bettors would bet on either team at various NFL spreads for that game, in
advance of the game.
This brings us to the Las Vegas oddsmakers'
when it comes to using betting lines
and point spreads to control NFL bet action (and possibly the greatest weakness of a inexperienced NFL football handicapper).
The oddsmakers' greatest strength for dividing action and the direction of NFL bets
is based on the fact that
most who bet NFL football make their betting decisions
by relying on some level of information they have
collected about the matchup, most likely from general public sources.
To cope, Las Vegas odds makers
have likely developed techniques to allow them to measure
the level of sports betting information that
prospective sports bettors
know about a given game before having to create and release
the NFL opening line for that game.
One method NFL odds makers may potentially use to measure the
NFL football gambling information level known about a game to
those who bet football
is to release an exclusive "unrefined"
test line or NFL early line for select knowledgeable and well respected gamblers or
"Vegas insiders" to bet into.
For inside gamblers who have access to these "unrefined"
NFL early lines, it's like
having access to easy money... Because if the betting line ends up being far off
from the test line, the game can be sandwiched by insiders for a potential double hit
at Las Vegas sports books.
But it's well worth it for Vegas to give these insiders the middling
Because by allowing select insiders an exclusive opportunity to
place NFL wagers against
early NFL test lines, NFL Vegas odds makers get a chance to determine
whether or not select insiders are betting
the same side in a game, whether insiders are split, and how
strongly insiders feel about their selection in terms of money flow/the size
of their NFL football bets.
Collecting NFL betting info about the size of various NFL bets so that Vegas can know how
insiders are weighing their
moves on given game
helps the odds makers make an assessment of what the
opening NFL line will need to be set at in order
to generate even betting action
from the combination of insider NFL handicapping experts and general
public NFL bettors for a given game.
Another reason odds makers may provide insiders with early NFL test lines is because
insiders place bigger football bets (which are harder to balance),
plus insiders can at any moment have access to
more relevant information about a given game than anyone else.
For example, insiders may potentially know:
Insiders may potentially be in possession of much pertinent info
(a.k.a. inside NFL info/inside reads)
that hasn't been disseminated to the public prior to the opening line coming out.
And since Vegas' odds makers are providing insiders with an early test line to
bet into so that they can
measure the level of insider interest in a game before
creating the opening line
for the purpose of choosing NFL football odds lines that control the money flow to their
needs, Las Vegas football odds and
point spreads may potentially reflect the level of unpublicized NFL betting information
known to insiders who gamble on NFL about a given game.
- what types of strategies the teams plan to use (not what teams state publicly)
- whether or not the teams involved are emotionally ready to play
- who is officiating the game and what affect that may have on the teams' playing styles
- whether the starting center has a blister on his index finger or big toe
Hence, Backwards Odds NFL Handicapping
begins with making considerations about the opening
NFL lines with respect to various teams involved in the game.
This is the first step to potentially reverse engineer Las Vegas' NFL spreads and betting odds.
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FootballLOCKS.com. Or read on.
So now you have an idea of how FootballLOCKS.com
performs its pro football handicapping... To us it's not the teams
that matter most... It's not the stats
that matter most...
It's the line on the game that matter the most.
The line on the game potentially shows that NFL insiders and odds may
possibly know something the NFL betting public
But how can one extract such possible indications from the line
to make expert NFL weekly picks? How can one pinpoint which teams
NFL football odds makers and insiders might be thinking have an advantage
to cover the pro football point spread?
That's where our Backwards Odds
Handicapping attempts to come into play to examine NFL lines in reverse.
Using Backwards Odds NFL Handicapping to Potentially Reverse
Engineer Las Vegas NFL Odds and Point Spreads
in an Effort to Find Games With a Higher Probability of NFL Bet Success:
With insiders potentially in
possession of non-publicized pro football betting information
and Las Vegas football odds makers potentially
in possession of the tools needed to measure the level of
such info, the general NFL betting public may potentially be in a disadvantaged position when it comes
to betting NFL games. The common person interested in betting football games
may not have a clue as to how such information may possibly affect Vegas NFL football lines
or their NFL bets.
NFL bettors and even unknowledgeable handicappers who don't consider the formation of
Vegas NFL lines may be positioned to lose money quickly betting on pro football.
Consider the following
progression of a hypothetical NFL matchup where unpublicized information may
The opening NFL lines are
released at a number
that entices the general public
to bet NFL teams opposite of what insiders
may be betting on.
The money bet on various NFL football teams by
the uninformed public counters
the money bet by insiders
keeping the action even.
Football insiders go on to win the majority of their NFL bets.
And the general
public losses the majority of their football bets.
It may happen time and time again to
people betting NFL football who don't understand how to read the lines.
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NFL picks each week
of the season including for the playoffs and Super Bowl.
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Unreleased information on a game may also potentially
manifest itself to NFL insiders after the opening line
has been set...
In such cases, the line
may once again be adjusted, potentially to entice the general NFL wagering public to bet
on the lower probability or disadvantaged team
to balance action. Of course, the football is an odd shaped ball, and anything can happen
in any given game. Consider an insider
with unpublicized information who bets on a given football game. There is no guarantee that
game will win whatsoever.
Anything can happen on that NFL field.
Something to consider when betting on sports at a Las Vegas sports book.
At any rate, should any of this be considered unethical?
Not really. After all, access to
information is not illegal in sports.
And it's not the oddsmakers' duty to
report what they may or may not know about a
But it is the oddsmakers' duty to set the line at a number
that draws even action. If they didn't, Las Vegas sportsbooks couldn't
any juice and you wouldn't be able to bet on sports.
So if inside information or an inside read potentially exists,
oddsmakers may simply react by setting the line at a number that
balances action, even if it means the possibility of enticing the
public to bet sports teams that they may perceive as being disadvantaged.
Backwards Odds Handicapping of Las Vegas' NFL betting odds
attempts to pinpoint such games.
Before you place another football bet, consider
getting an online
Get subscription access to FootballLOCKS.com
and see if increases the success of your NFL bets. People who insist on
picking games on their own may be at risk to experience
a reduction in their chances of winning sports bets
as they could be enticed into betting games
with seemingly favorable odds, when there might be non-publicized information stacked against them.
Simply stated, by ignoring indications in the line,
you're possibly at risk to continue to lose more football bets like some
people betting on NFL football do.
Meanwhile, FootballLocks.com endeavors to assess if
Las Vegas NFL lines are possibly being driven by
non-publicized information and/or by the public's NFL betting money.
An Edge For Uncovering Winning Football Bets?
Examining the NFL line... Whether or not such game deciding info
may exist in a specific game may potentially be determined by
an analysis of the NFL Vegas line for that given
Of course there is no guarantee that you are going to win
any given NFL bet made using such possible line indications.
Beating Vegas' NFL odds and point spreads over the long run is
complicated by the presence of juice.
Limiting yourself to Backwards NFL odds handicapped predictions
for betting on NFL games may potentially put you on the
the winning side with a higher frequency
compared to using typical techniques
employed by other NFL handicappers
and sports picks services
that may not work versus Las Vegas NFL lines, such as
which NFL team is supposedly better.
Getting NFL Sports Betting Picks
Made Using Backwards Odds Handicapping of Vegas
Are you ready to get
weekly selections made using Backwards Odds Handicapping of
Las Vegas NFL betting lines
in an effort to potentially win
more pro football bets?
is the pioneer of Backwards Odds Handicapping
for NFL football bet selection.
See if you can improve your NFL betting success. Of course there are
no guarantees. The football is a funny shaped object that can bounce any way, regardless
of how strongly someone may feel about a release.
Attempting to extract betting information from the
NFL line contains risk as does any form of sports betting.
One final note:
It is advisable to never wager on NFL football
with any amount of money that would be unaffordable if lost.
Make FootballLOCKS.com your NFL handicapper... The pioneers of backwards odds capping
of Las Vegas pro football lines.
Again there are no guarantees of success and money can be lost betting on sports picks.
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FootballLOCKS.com hopes this has been an interesting read on
how we use Backwards Odds Handicapping of
Las Vegas NFL odds & point spreads
to make an NFL prediction against the latest betting line.